| TEAM (FPI rk) | W1SEP 10 | W2SEP 18 | W3SEP 25 | W4OCT 2 | W5OCT 9 | W6OCT 16 | W7OCT 23 | W8OCT 30 | W9NOV 6 | W10NOV 13 | W11NOV 20 | W12NOV 26 | W13DEC 4 | W14DEC 11 | W15DEC 18 | W16DEC 25 | W17JAN 1 | W18JAN 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 LARmodel 11.5 · vegas 11.5 · even | SF (n)61% | vs NYG79% | @ DEN61% | @ PHI59% | vs BUF62% | vs ARI87% | @ LV80% | vs LAC66% | @ WSH71% | @ ARI81% | BYE | vs GB66% | vs KC67% | @ SF56% | vs DAL69% | @ SEA53% | @ TB66% | vs SEA64% |
| #2 BUFmodel 10.8 · vegas 10.5 · +0.3 | @ HOU54% | vs DET61% | vs LAC60% | vs NE64% | @ LAR38% | @ LV75% | BYE | vs BAL57% | @ MIN61% | @ NYJ75% | vs MIA85% | vs KC61% | @ NE54% | @ GB50% | vs CHI66% | @ DEN54% | @ MIA79% | vs NYJ82% |
| #3 SEAmodel 10.3 · vegas 10.5 · -0.2 | vs NE63% | @ ARI76% | @ WSH63% | vs LAC58% | vs SF57% | @ DEN53% | vs KC59% | vs CHI64% | vs ARI82% | @ LV74% | BYE | @ SF47% | vs DAL61% | vs NYG72% | @ PHI50% | vs LAR47% | @ CAR68% | @ LAR36% |
| #4 BALmodel 10.8 · vegas 11.5 · -0.7 | @ IND59% | vs NO76% | DAL (n)56% | vs TEN79% | @ ATL64% | @ CLE75% | vs CIN61% | @ BUF43% | vs JAX64% | vs LAC57% | @ CAR68% | @ HOU52% | BYE | vs TB68% | @ PIT60% | vs CLE82% | @ CIN51% | vs PIT69% |
| #5 SFmodel 10.1 · vegas 9.5 · +0.6 | LAR (n)39% | vs MIA83% | vs ARI81% | vs DEN61% | @ SEA43% | vs WSH70% | @ ATL62% | BYE | vs LV80% | @ DAL49% | MIN (n)62% | vs SEA53% | @ NYG61% | vs LAR44% | @ LAC45% | @ KC47% | vs PHI58% | @ ARI74% |
| #6 LACmodel 9.9 · vegas 9.5 · +0.4 | vs ARI81% | vs LV79% | @ BUF40% | @ SEA42% | vs DEN60% | @ KC46% | BYE | @ LAR34% | vs HOU60% | @ BAL43% | vs NYJ79% | vs NE60% | @ TB56% | @ LV72% | vs SF55% | @ MIA76% | vs KC57% | @ DEN50% |
| #7 GBmodel 10.0 · vegas 9.5 · +0.5 | @ MIN56% | @ NYJ71% | vs ATL71% | @ TB55% | vs CHI61% | vs DAL58% | @ DET45% | vs CAR74% | @ NE49% | vs MIN66% | BYE | @ LAR34% | @ NO65% | vs BUF50% | vs MIA82% | @ CHI51% | vs HOU59% | vs DET56% |
| #8 DETmodel 10.6 · vegas 10.5 · +0.1 | vs NO73% | @ BUF39% | vs NYJ79% | @ CAR65% | @ ARI73% | BYE | vs GB55% | vs MIN66% | @ MIA75% | NE (n)54% | vs TB64% | vs CHI61% | @ ATL61% | vs TEN77% | @ MIN56% | vs NYG69% | @ CHI50% | @ GB44% |
| #9 KCmodel 9.8 · vegas 10.5 · -0.7 | vs DEN59% | vs IND66% | @ MIA74% | @ LV70% | BYE | vs LAC54% | @ SEA41% | @ DEN48% | vs NYJ78% | @ ATL61% | vs ARI80% | @ BUF39% | @ LAR33% | @ CIN47% | vs NE59% | vs SF53% | @ LAC43% | vs LV78% |
| #10 PHImodel 9.8 · vegas 10.5 · -0.7 | vs WSH68% | @ TEN67% | @ CHI48% | vs LAR41% | JAX (n)54% | vs CAR72% | vs DAL56% | @ WSH58% | vs NYG68% | BYE | vs PIT65% | @ DAL46% | @ ARI71% | vs IND64% | vs SEA50% | vs HOU57% | @ SF42% | @ NYG58% |
| #11 DALmodel 9.3 · vegas 9.5 · -0.2 | @ NYG57% | vs WSH67% | BAL (n)44% | @ HOU46% | vs TB62% | @ GB42% | @ PHI44% | vs ARI79% | @ IND53% | vs SF51% | vs TEN75% | vs PHI54% | @ SEA39% | BYE | @ LAR31% | vs JAX58% | vs NYG67% | @ WSH57% |
| #12 CINmodel 10.2 · vegas 10.5 · -0.3 | vs TB62% | @ HOU45% | @ PIT54% | vs JAX58% | @ MIA72% | BYE | @ BAL39% | vs TEN74% | ATL (n)63% | vs PIT64% | @ WSH57% | vs NO71% | @ CLE70% | vs KC53% | @ CAR62% | @ IND53% | vs BAL49% | vs CLE78% |
| #13 HOUmodel 9.4 · vegas 9.5 · -0.1 | vs BUF46% | vs CIN55% | @ IND53% | vs DAL54% | @ TEN66% | JAX (n)52% | vs NYG66% | BYE | @ LAC40% | @ CLE70% | vs IND63% | vs BAL48% | @ PIT53% | @ WSH56% | vs JAX57% | @ PHI43% | @ GB41% | vs TEN74% |
| #14 NEmodel 9.4 · vegas 10.5 · -1.1 | @ SEA37% | vs PIT63% | @ JAX46% | @ BUF36% | vs LV76% | vs NYJ76% | @ CHI46% | @ MIA72% | vs GB51% | DET (n)46% | BYE | @ LAC40% | vs BUF46% | vs MIN62% | @ KC41% | @ NYJ67% | vs DEN55% | vs MIA79% |
| #15 DENmodel 9.3 · vegas 9.5 · -0.2 | @ KC41% | vs JAX57% | vs LAR39% | @ SF39% | @ LAC40% | vs SEA47% | @ ARI69% | vs KC52% | @ CAR61% | BYE | vs LV76% | @ PIT53% | vs MIA79% | @ NYJ67% | @ LV67% | vs BUF46% | @ NE45% | vs LAC50% |
| #16 JAXmodel 9.0 · vegas 8.5 · +0.5 | vs CLE76% | @ DEN43% | vs NE54% | @ CIN42% | PHI (n)46% | HOU (n)48% | BYE | vs IND61% | @ BAL36% | @ TEN64% | @ NYG54% | vs TEN72% | @ CHI45% | vs PIT61% | @ HOU43% | @ DAL42% | vs WSH64% | @ IND50% |
| #17 CHImodel 9.1 · vegas 9.5 · -0.4 | @ CAR60% | vs MIN61% | vs PHI52% | vs NYJ74% | @ GB39% | @ ATL56% | vs NE54% | @ SEA36% | vs TB59% | BYE | vs NO69% | @ DET39% | vs JAX55% | @ MIA70% | @ BUF34% | vs GB49% | vs DET50% | @ MIN50% |
| #18 TBmodel 8.5 · vegas 8.5 · even | @ CIN38% | vs CLE73% | vs MIN57% | vs GB45% | @ DAL38% | vs PIT57% | @ CAR56% | vs ATL62% | @ CHI41% | BYE | @ DET36% | vs CAR66% | vs LAC44% | @ BAL32% | vs NO65% | @ ATL52% | vs LAR34% | @ NO55% |
| #19 INDmodel 8.4 · vegas 7.5 · +0.9 | vs BAL41% | @ KC34% | vs HOU47% | WSH (n)54% | @ PIT46% | vs TEN68% | @ MIN45% | @ JAX39% | vs DAL47% | vs MIA74% | @ HOU37% | vs NYG59% | BYE | @ PHI36% | @ TEN58% | vs CIN47% | @ CLE63% | vs JAX50% |
| #20 MINmodel 8.3 · vegas 8.5 · -0.2 | vs GB44% | @ CHI39% | @ TB43% | vs MIA74% | @ NO54% | BYE | vs IND55% | @ DET34% | vs BUF39% | @ GB34% | SF (n)38% | vs ATL60% | vs CAR64% | @ NE38% | vs DET44% | vs WSH59% | @ NYJ61% | vs CHI50% |
| #21 PITmodel 8.3 · vegas 8.5 · -0.2 | vs ATL60% | @ NE37% | vs CIN46% | @ CLE62% | vs IND54% | @ TB43% | NO (n)58% | vs CLE71% | BYE | @ CIN36% | @ PHI35% | vs DEN47% | vs HOU47% | @ JAX39% | vs BAL40% | vs CAR64% | @ TEN57% | @ BAL31% |
| #22 WSHmodel 7.3 · vegas 7.5 · -0.2 | @ PHI32% | @ DAL33% | vs SEA37% | IND (n)46% | vs NYG56% | @ SF30% | BYE | vs PHI42% | vs LAR29% | @ NYG45% | vs CIN43% | @ ARI60% | @ TEN54% | vs HOU44% | vs ATL57% | @ MIN41% | @ JAX36% | vs DAL43% |
| #23 NYGmodel 7.5 · vegas 7.5 · even | vs DAL43% | @ LAR21% | vs TEN64% | vs ARI69% | @ WSH44% | vs NO60% | @ HOU34% | BYE | @ PHI32% | vs WSH55% | vs JAX46% | @ IND41% | vs SF39% | @ SEA28% | vs CLE68% | @ DET31% | @ DAL33% | vs PHI42% |
| #24 ATLmodel 7.5 · vegas 6.5 · +1.0 | @ PIT40% | vs CAR59% | @ GB29% | @ NO48% | vs BAL36% | vs CHI44% | vs SF38% | @ TB38% | CIN (n)37% | vs KC39% | BYE | @ MIN40% | vs DET39% | @ CLE58% | @ WSH43% | vs TB48% | vs NO59% | @ CAR49% |
| #25 NOmodel 7.4 · vegas 7.5 · -0.1 | @ DET27% | @ BAL24% | vs LV62% | vs ATL52% | vs MIN46% | @ NYG40% | PIT (n)42% | BYE | vs CLE64% | vs CAR56% | @ CHI31% | @ CIN29% | vs GB35% | @ CAR45% | @ TB35% | vs ARI64% | @ ATL41% | vs TB45% |
| #26 CARmodel 6.7 · vegas 7.5 · -0.8 | vs CHI40% | @ ATL41% | @ CLE54% | vs DET35% | BYE | @ PHI28% | vs TB44% | @ GB26% | vs DEN39% | @ NO44% | vs BAL32% | @ TB34% | @ MIN36% | vs NO55% | vs CIN38% | @ PIT36% | vs SEA32% | vs ATL51% |
| #27 TENmodel 6.2 · vegas 6.5 · -0.3 | vs NYJ58% | vs PHI33% | @ NYG36% | @ BAL21% | vs HOU34% | @ IND32% | vs CLE60% | @ CIN26% | BYE | vs JAX36% | @ DAL25% | @ JAX28% | vs WSH46% | @ DET23% | vs IND42% | @ LV47% | vs PIT43% | @ HOU26% |
| #28 LVmodel 5.6 · vegas 5.5 · +0.1 | vs MIA60% | @ LAC21% | @ NO38% | vs KC30% | @ NE24% | vs BUF25% | vs LAR20% | @ NYJ45% | @ SF20% | vs SEA26% | @ DEN24% | @ CLE47% | BYE | vs LAC28% | vs DEN33% | vs TEN53% | @ ARI47% | @ KC22% |
| #29 NYJmodel 6.0 · vegas 5.5 · +0.5 | @ TEN42% | vs GB29% | @ DET21% | @ CHI26% | vs CLE57% | @ NE24% | vs MIA60% | vs LV55% | @ KC22% | vs BUF25% | @ LAC21% | @ MIA50% | BYE | vs DEN33% | @ ARI47% | vs NE33% | vs MIN39% | @ BUF18% |
| #30 CLEmodel 5.7 · vegas 5.5 · +0.2 | @ JAX24% | @ TB27% | vs CAR46% | vs PIT38% | @ NYJ43% | vs BAL25% | @ TEN40% | @ PIT29% | @ NO36% | vs HOU30% | BYE | vs LV53% | vs CIN30% | vs ATL42% | @ NYG32% | @ BAL18% | vs IND37% | @ CIN22% |
| #31 ARImodel 4.8 · vegas 3.5 · +1.3 | @ LAC19% | vs SEA24% | @ SF19% | @ NYG31% | vs DET27% | @ LAR13% | vs DEN31% | @ DAL21% | @ SEA18% | vs LAR19% | @ KC20% | vs WSH40% | vs PHI29% | BYE | vs NYJ53% | @ NO36% | vs LV53% | vs SF26% |
| #32 MIAmodel 4.5 · vegas 4.5 · even | @ LV40% | @ SF17% | vs KC26% | @ MIN26% | vs CIN28% | BYE | @ NYJ40% | vs NE28% | vs DET25% | @ IND26% | @ BUF15% | vs NYJ50% | @ DEN21% | vs CHI30% | @ GB18% | vs LAC24% | vs BUF21% | @ NE21% |
Ratings. ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) 2026 preseason ratings, which bake in Vegas win totals, schedule, and roster context. Rams +5.9 sit on top, Dolphins -6.1 on the bottom.
Win probability. FPI rating difference plus 1.4 points of home field (zero for the 9 neutral-site international games, marked (n)), run through a logistic curve tuned to FPI's own Week 1 game projections. It reproduces ESPN's Week 1 lines within about 1.5 points.
Value score. The number in each cell is the model's win probability for that team that week. Dark green is a heavy favorite, light green a lean, gray a toss-up, light red a likely loss, dark red a near-lock to lose. Pick'em gold is dark green where your league mates are scared, or red cells where the crowd still picks the name brand.
The field-gap. The sticky column compares model-projected wins to the Vegas win total. Green gap means the model likes the team more than the market does. The 2025 lesson: Houston went 13-6 against the #2-hardest schedule as played, while New England's 17-4 came against the #30-easiest. Record against a hard slate is real. Record against a soft one is inflation.