Pick'em at Nakatomi

TEAM (FPI rk)	W1SEP 9	W2SEP 18	W3SEP 25	W4OCT 2	W5OCT 9	W6OCT 16	W7OCT 23	W8OCT 30	W9NOV 6	W10NOV 13	W11NOV 20	W12NOV 26	W13DEC 4	W14DEC 11	W15DEC 18	W16DEC 25	W17JAN 1	W18JAN 10
#3 LARmodel 10.5 · vegas 11.5 · -1.0	SF (n)61%	vs NYG63%	@ DEN60%	@ PHI54%	vs BUF53%	vs ARI85%	@ LV70%	vs LAC76%	@ WSH70%	@ ARI76%	BYE	vs GB71%	vs KC58%	@ SF34%	vs DAL63%	@ SEA50%	@ TB63%	vs SEA64%
#2 BUFmodel 12.4 · vegas 10.5 · +1.9	@ HOU54%	vs DET66%	vs LAC79%	vs NE70%	@ LAR47%	@ LV73%	BYE	vs BAL63%	@ MIN58%	@ NYJ73%	vs MIA91%	vs KC62%	@ NE56%	@ GB61%	vs CHI77%	@ DEN64%	@ MIA85%	vs NYJ83%
#7 SEAmodel 10.5 · vegas 10.5 · even	vs NE63%	@ ARI34%	@ WSH67%	vs LAC71%	vs SF41%	@ DEN54%	vs KC51%	vs CHI69%	vs ARI81%	@ LV64%	BYE	@ SF28%	vs DAL56%	vs NYG84%	@ PHI47%	vs LAR50%	@ CAR58%	@ LAR36%
#5 BALmodel 11.0 · vegas 11.5 · -0.5	@ IND59%	vs NO76%	DAL (n)54%	vs TEN83%	@ ATL74%	@ CLE77%	vs CIN66%	@ BUF37%	vs JAX63%	vs LAC75%	@ CAR63%	@ HOU55%	BYE	vs TB74%	@ PIT67%	vs CLE86%	@ CIN52%	vs PIT79%
#1 SFmodel 13.1 · vegas 9.5 · +3.6	LAR (n)39%	vs MIA89%	vs ARI88%	vs DEN79%	@ SEA57%	vs WSH89%	@ ATL82%	BYE	vs LV86%	@ DAL58%	MIN (n)70%	vs SEA72%	@ NYG85%	vs LAR66%	@ LAC73%	@ KC53%	vs PHI76%	@ ARI82%
#21 LACmodel 5.9 · vegas 9.5 · -3.6	vs ARI81%	vs LV69%	@ BUF21%	@ SEA29%	vs DEN54%	@ KC24%	BYE	@ LAR24%	vs HOU49%	@ BAL25%	vs NYJ64%	vs NE45%	@ TB42%	@ LV49%	vs SF27%	@ MIA67%	vs KC37%	@ DEN39%
#15 GBmodel 8.7 · vegas 9.5 · -0.8	@ MIN56%	@ NYJ61%	vs ATL74%	@ TB50%	vs CHI60%	vs DAL47%	@ DET35%	vs CAR63%	@ NE37%	vs MIN54%	BYE	@ LAR29%	@ NO47%	vs BUF39%	vs MIA83%	@ CHI47%	vs HOU56%	vs DET51%
#9 DETmodel 10.6 · vegas 10.5 · +0.1	vs NO73%	@ BUF34%	vs NYJ75%	@ CAR56%	@ ARI69%	BYE	vs GB65%	vs MIN60%	@ MIA77%	NE (n)51%	vs TB69%	vs CHI67%	@ ATL67%	vs TEN79%	@ MIN46%	vs NYG83%	@ CHI53%	@ GB49%
#4 KCmodel 11.6 · vegas 10.5 · +1.1	vs DEN59%	vs IND75%	@ MIA82%	@ LV69%	BYE	vs LAC76%	@ SEA49%	@ DEN60%	vs NYJ81%	@ ATL73%	vs ARI85%	@ BUF38%	@ LAR42%	@ CIN53%	vs NE66%	vs SF47%	@ LAC63%	vs LV80%
#12 PHImodel 10.5 · vegas 10.5 · even	vs WSH68%	@ TEN69%	@ CHI54%	vs LAR46%	JAX (n)46%	vs CAR67%	vs DAL52%	@ WSH60%	vs NYG82%	BYE	vs PIT72%	@ DAL37%	@ ARI66%	vs IND66%	vs SEA53%	vs HOU59%	@ SF24%	@ NYG71%
#6 DALmodel 9.8 · vegas 9.5 · +0.3	@ NYG57%	vs WSH65%	BAL (n)46%	@ HOU51%	vs TB74%	@ GB53%	@ PHI48%	vs ARI82%	@ IND58%	vs SF42%	vs TEN81%	vs PHI63%	@ SEA44%	BYE	@ LAR37%	vs JAX59%	vs NYG85%	@ WSH65%
#11 CINmodel 11.2 · vegas 10.5 · +0.7	vs TB62%	@ HOU44%	@ PIT59%	vs JAX54%	@ MIA76%	BYE	@ BAL34%	vs TEN77%	ATL (n)71%	vs PIT72%	@ WSH60%	vs NO65%	@ CLE70%	vs KC47%	@ CAR54%	@ IND53%	vs BAL48%	vs CLE81%
#14 HOUmodel 8.4 · vegas 9.5 · -1.1	vs BUF46%	vs CIN56%	@ IND50%	vs DAL49%	@ TEN63%	JAX (n)44%	vs NYG80%	BYE	@ LAC51%	@ CLE68%	vs IND64%	vs BAL45%	@ PIT56%	@ WSH58%	vs JAX51%	@ PHI41%	@ GB44%	vs TEN75%
#10 NEmodel 9.7 · vegas 10.5 · -0.8	@ SEA37%	vs PIT61%	@ JAX41%	@ BUF30%	vs LV74%	vs NYJ74%	@ CHI52%	@ MIA77%	vs GB63%	DET (n)49%	BYE	@ LAC55%	vs BUF44%	vs MIN59%	@ KC34%	@ NYJ62%	vs DEN65%	vs MIA85%
#16 DENmodel 8.4 · vegas 9.5 · -1.1	@ KC41%	vs JAX38%	vs LAR40%	@ SF20%	@ LAC46%	vs SEA46%	@ ARI60%	vs KC40%	@ CAR47%	BYE	vs LV67%	@ PIT52%	vs MIA81%	@ NYJ54%	@ LV53%	vs BUF36%	@ NE35%	vs LAC61%
#8 JAXmodel 10.0 · vegas 8.5 · +1.5	vs CLE76%	@ DEN62%	vs NE59%	@ CIN46%	PHI (n)54%	HOU (n)56%	BYE	vs IND70%	@ BAL37%	@ TEN69%	@ NYG74%	vs TEN80%	@ CHI54%	vs PIT75%	@ HOU49%	@ DAL41%	vs WSH76%	@ IND56%
#17 CHImodel 8.1 · vegas 9.5 · -1.4	@ CAR60%	vs MIN76%	vs PHI46%	vs NYJ67%	@ GB40%	@ ATL59%	vs NE48%	@ SEA31%	vs TB59%	BYE	vs NO57%	@ DET33%	vs JAX46%	@ MIA69%	@ BUF23%	vs GB53%	vs DET47%	@ MIN36%
#20 TBmodel 7.0 · vegas 8.5 · -1.5	@ CIN38%	vs CLE78%	vs MIN48%	vs GB50%	@ DAL26%	vs PIT60%	@ CAR44%	vs ATL69%	@ CHI41%	BYE	@ DET31%	vs CAR59%	vs LAC58%	@ BAL26%	vs NO56%	@ ATL56%	vs LAR37%	@ NO41%
#19 INDmodel 7.6 · vegas 7.5 · +0.1	vs BAL41%	@ KC25%	vs HOU50%	WSH (n)61%	@ PIT49%	vs TEN70%	@ MIN34%	@ JAX30%	vs DAL42%	vs MIA79%	@ HOU36%	vs NYG75%	BYE	@ PHI34%	@ TEN56%	vs CIN47%	@ CLE62%	vs JAX44%
#13 MINmodel 10.5 · vegas 8.5 · +2.0	vs GB44%	@ CHI24%	@ TB52%	vs MIA84%	@ NO50%	BYE	vs IND66%	@ DET40%	vs BUF42%	@ GB46%	SF (n)30%	vs ATL76%	vs CAR67%	@ NE41%	vs DET54%	vs WSH73%	@ NYJ60%	vs CHI64%
#23 PITmodel 7.2 · vegas 8.5 · -1.3	vs ATL60%	@ NE39%	vs CIN41%	@ CLE55%	vs IND51%	@ TB40%	NO (n)42%	vs CLE69%	BYE	@ CIN28%	@ PHI28%	vs DEN48%	vs HOU44%	@ JAX25%	vs BAL33%	vs CAR52%	@ TEN50%	@ BAL21%
#25 WSHmodel 6.1 · vegas 7.5 · -1.4	@ PHI32%	@ DAL35%	vs SEA33%	IND (n)39%	vs NYG66%	@ SF11%	BYE	vs PHI40%	vs LAR30%	@ NYG55%	vs CIN40%	@ ARI50%	@ TEN48%	vs HOU42%	vs ATL62%	@ MIN27%	@ JAX24%	vs DAL35%
#31 NYGmodel 5.7 · vegas 7.5 · -1.8	vs DAL43%	@ LAR37%	vs TEN50%	vs ARI52%	@ WSH34%	vs NO36%	@ HOU20%	BYE	@ PHI18%	vs WSH45%	vs JAX26%	@ IND25%	vs SF15%	@ SEA16%	vs CLE56%	@ DET17%	@ DAL15%	vs PHI29%
#29 ATLmodel 5.0 · vegas 6.5 · -1.5	@ PIT40%	vs CAR46%	@ GB26%	@ NO28%	vs BAL26%	vs CHI41%	vs SF18%	@ TB31%	CIN (n)29%	vs KC27%	BYE	@ MIN24%	vs DET33%	@ CLE49%	@ WSH38%	vs TB44%	vs NO43%	@ CAR32%
#18 NOmodel 9.5 · vegas 7.5 · +2.0	@ DET27%	@ BAL24%	vs LV66%	vs ATL72%	vs MIN50%	@ NYG64%	PIT (n)58%	BYE	vs CLE76%	vs CAR60%	@ CHI43%	@ CIN35%	vs GB53%	@ CAR46%	@ TB44%	vs ARI72%	@ ATL57%	vs TB59%
#22 CARmodel 8.0 · vegas 7.5 · +0.5	vs CHI40%	@ ATL54%	@ CLE60%	vs DET44%	BYE	@ PHI33%	vs TB56%	@ GB37%	vs DEN53%	@ NO40%	vs BAL37%	@ TB41%	@ MIN33%	vs NO54%	vs CIN46%	@ PIT48%	vs SEA42%	vs ATL68%
#27 TENmodel 5.2 · vegas 6.5 · -1.3	vs NYJ58%	vs PHI31%	@ NYG50%	@ BAL17%	vs HOU37%	@ IND30%	vs CLE63%	@ CIN23%	BYE	vs JAX31%	@ DAL19%	@ JAX20%	vs WSH52%	@ DET21%	vs IND44%	@ LV37%	vs PIT50%	@ HOU25%
#24 LVmodel 7.6 · vegas 5.5 · +2.1	vs MIA60%	@ LAC31%	@ NO34%	vs KC31%	@ NE26%	vs BUF27%	vs LAR30%	@ NYJ44%	@ SF14%	vs SEA36%	@ DEN33%	@ CLE55%	BYE	vs LAC51%	vs DEN47%	vs TEN63%	@ ARI50%	@ KC20%
#26 NYJmodel 7.2 · vegas 5.5 · +1.7	@ TEN42%	vs GB39%	@ DET25%	@ CHI33%	vs CLE68%	@ NE26%	vs MIA73%	vs LV56%	@ KC19%	vs BUF27%	@ LAC36%	@ MIA60%	BYE	vs DEN46%	@ ARI49%	vs NE38%	vs MIN40%	@ BUF17%
#30 CLEmodel 6.1 · vegas 5.5 · +0.6	@ JAX24%	@ TB22%	vs CAR40%	vs PIT45%	@ NYJ32%	vs BAL23%	@ TEN37%	@ PIT31%	@ NO24%	vs HOU32%	BYE	vs LV45%	vs CIN30%	vs ATL51%	@ NYG44%	@ BAL14%	vs IND38%	@ CIN19%
#28 ARImodel 5.5 · vegas 3.5 · +2.0	@ LAC19%	vs SEA66%	@ SF11%	@ NYG48%	vs DET31%	@ LAR15%	vs DEN40%	@ DAL18%	@ SEA19%	vs LAR24%	@ KC15%	vs WSH50%	vs PHI34%	BYE	vs NYJ51%	@ NO28%	vs LV50%	vs SF18%
#32 MIAmodel 3.3 · vegas 4.5 · -1.2	@ LV40%	@ SF11%	vs KC18%	@ MIN16%	vs CIN24%	BYE	@ NYJ27%	vs NE23%	vs DET23%	@ IND21%	@ BUF9%	vs NYJ40%	@ DEN19%	vs CHI31%	@ GB17%	vs LAC33%	vs BUF15%	@ NE15%

How the model works

Ratings. ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) 2026 preseason ratings, which bake in Vegas win totals, schedule, and roster context. The Rams +5.9 sat on top preseason, Miami -6.1 at the bottom; the board re-derives off current ratings every Wednesday.

Win probability. FPI rating difference plus 1.4 points of home field (zero for the 9 neutral-site international games, marked (n)), run through a logistic curve tuned to FPI's own Week 1 game projections. It reproduces ESPN's Week 1 lines within about 1.5 points.

Value score. The number in each cell is the model's win probability for that team that week. Dark green is a heavy favorite, light green a lean, gray a toss-up, light red a likely loss, dark red a near-lock to lose. Pick'em gold is dark green where your league mates are scared, or red cells where the crowd still picks the name brand.

Leverage badges. A gold frame marks cells where the model's win probability divided by the crowd's pick rate (Yahoo Pro Football Pick'em straight-up distribution) clears 1.0 - the model likes that side more than the public does. Gold on green is the goldmine: a likely winner the crowd is ignoring (Kansas City is 58.9% to beat Denver but pulls only 46% of picks). Gold on red is a contrarian dart: still a likely loss, but priced way below reality. Tap a badged cell for the win %, pick %, and ratio. Current week only - badges follow as each week's pool data goes live.

The field-gap. The sticky column compares model-projected wins to the Vegas win total. Green gap means the model likes the team more than the market does. The 2025 lesson: Houston went 13-6 against the #2-hardest schedule as played, while New England's 17-4 came against the #30-easiest. Record against a hard slate is real. Record against a soft one is inflation. Vegas win totals stay frozen at the preseason number all season - the model side re-derives weekly off current FPI.

Week 3 - Top Value Plays

The Board - every team, every week. Cell = win probability that week. Tap any cell.

How the model works

Sources