Micron has also made a strategic pivot with government backing. The U.S. CHIPS Act is subsidizing Micron’s expansion in Boise, Idaho and Clay, New York—focusing on AI-grade memory production.

Based on projected free cash flows and a discount rate of 11.21%, we estimate Micron’s intrinsic value at $131 per share. Today, it trades around $120. That’s roughly 14% upside—and that doesn’t account for multiple expansion if demand accelerates.

Critics point to Micron’s heavy capital expenditures as a red flag, but we see that as a moat builder. The demand for HBM is only going up. Companies that secure capacity early are the ones who’ll benefit most from the AI infrastructure wave.