CircularFX Daily Report

01 Market Wrap — Friday 22 May 2026 Source: Newsquawk US Market Wrap

US equities finished the shortened week in positive territory with the S&P 500 adding +0.37% to 7,473, the DJIA gaining +0.58% to 50,585, and the Russell 2000 the outperformer at +0.91%. Healthcare and Industrials led sector gains while Communication Services was the sole notable decliner. Hardware stocks surged — DELL +16.8%, HPQ +15.3% — after Lenovo reported its highest quarterly growth in five years driven by strong PC demand.

The dominant narrative was Fed Governor Waller's hawkish pivot. Previously positioned as one of the more dovish FOMC members in early 2026, Waller argued forcefully that the easing bias should be removed from the policy statement, calling it "crazy" to discuss rate cuts given hot April CPI, PPI, and NFP prints. He stopped short of advocating an immediate hike but refused to rule one out if inflation fails to abate. Money markets quickly repriced — one full 25bps hike is now priced for year-end 2026. Kevin Warsh was simultaneously sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair but his first remarks were market-neutral. The 2-year yield hit new YTD highs.

Geopolitics dominated crude oil with conflicting Middle East headlines generating two-way trade. WTI settled +$0.25 at $96.60/bbl; Brent +$0.96 at $103.54/bbl. Sky News Arabia reported a broad-outlines understanding on Iran's nuclear issue; Iranian officials countered that differences remain "deep and significant." Pakistani and Qatari officials arrived in Tehran seeking to bridge gaps. Trump was reported to be "frustrated" and considering "decisive action." The market enters the long weekend with no resolution and elevated tail risk in either direction.

In FX, the dollar firmed broadly on Waller. CHF and GBP eked out modest gains vs USD. EUR was flat. CAD, JPY, and Antipodeans underperformed — the latter also weighed by metals pressure. US UoM Consumer Sentiment hit a record low of 44.8, with 1-yr inflation expectations rising to 4.8% and 5-yr expectations jumping to 3.9%. Treasuries flattened — short end sold, long end bid.

02 Market Open — May 25/26, 2026 No URL Provided — Derived from Available Context

⚠️ Extended Long Weekend: US markets (NYSE/CME) are closed Monday May 25 for Memorial Day. UK markets are closed Monday for the Spring Bank Holiday. EU markets are closed Monday for Whit Monday. Tokyo and Sydney open normally Sunday night / Monday. Full Western liquidity does not return until Tuesday May 26, 2026.

Asia session (Sunday night THT / Monday May 25): Expect thin liquidity and wide spreads across all major pairs. The JPY will be the primary mover given Tokyo is operating in full, while USD pairs may see exaggerated moves on any Middle East headlines. No major Asian data releases overnight. Monitor any weekend diplomatic developments from Tehran — a breakthrough deal or escalation rhetoric could gap markets at the open.

The geopolitical binary is the dominant risk: a deal = crude down, risk-on, AUD/NZD recover; escalation or US military action = crude spike, CHF/JPY rally hard, equities sell off. Position sizing should account for this binary over the long weekend. Avoid initiating new positions into Sunday/Monday thin liquidity unless a clear setup emerges with tight risk parameters.

03 Economic Calendar — Week of May 25–30, 2026 All times in THT (UTC+7)

3.1 Full Calendar — Week Ahead

THT Date/Time	Currency	Event	Previous	Forecast	Actual	Impact
Mon 25	—	US + UK + EU Markets CLOSED	—	—	—	HOLIDAY
Mon 25 / Various	JPY	Tokyo CPI (May) YoY	3.4%	~3.5%	—	🔴
Tue 26 / ~09:30	AUD	Australian CPI (Apr, Monthly)	2.4%	~2.5%	—	🔴
Tue 26 / ~09:00	NZD	RBNZ Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25% (Hold)	—	🔴
Tue 26 / ~09:30	NZD	RBNZ Press Conference / MPS	—	—	—	🔴
Tue 26 / ~19:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	—	—	—	🟡
Wed 27 / ~19:00	USD	FOMC Minutes (May Meeting)	—	—	—	🔴
Thu 28 / ~19:30	USD	GDP (Q1, 2nd Estimate)	-0.3%	—	—	🔴
Thu 28 / ~19:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	—	—	—	🟡
Thu 28 / Various	EUR	ECB Minutes	—	—	—	🟡
Fri 29 / ~19:30	USD	PCE Deflator (Apr) YoY	2.3%	~2.4%	—	🔴
Fri 29 / ~19:30	USD	Core PCE (Apr) YoY	2.6%	~2.7%	—	🔴
Fri 29 / ~19:30	CAD	Canada GDP (Mar)	—	—	—	🟡
Fri 29 / ~19:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI confirmation (if released)	—	—	—	🟡

3.2 High-Impact Events — Deep Focus 🔴

RBNZ Rate Decision — Tue 26 ~09:00 THT

Previous: 2.25% | Forecast: Hold 2.25% (98% probability priced)

Reaction: Hold + dovish tone → NZD bearish. Surprise cut or hawkish guidance → NZD volatile.

Pairs Affected: NZD/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF

⛔ Blackout: 08:45–09:45 THT — avoid NZD entries

Australian CPI (Apr) — Tue 26 ~09:30 THT

Previous: 2.4% | Forecast: ~2.5% | March jumped to 4.6%

Reaction: Hot print → AUD bullish, reinforces RBA hike path. Miss → AUD bearish.

Pairs Affected: AUD/USD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF

⛔ Blackout: 09:15–10:00 THT — avoid AUD entries

FOMC Minutes — Wed 27 ~19:00 THT

Relevance: May meeting pre-dates Waller's hawkish shift. Watch for any hawkish dissent signals or references to removing easing bias.

Reaction: Hawkish tone → USD bid, yields up. Balanced/dovish → USD pullback.

Pairs Affected: All USD pairs

⛔ Blackout: 18:45–19:30 THT — avoid USD entries

US PCE Deflator (Apr) — Fri 29 ~19:30 THT

Previous: 2.3% / Core 2.6% | Forecast: ~2.4% / Core ~2.7%

Reaction: Hot = reinforces Waller hawkish stance → USD strong, rate hike priced deeper. Cool = USD pullback, risk-on.

Pairs Affected: All USD pairs, Gold, Equities globally

⛔ Blackout: 19:15–20:00 THT — avoid all pairs

3.3 Kill Zone vs News Conflict Check

Kill Zone	THT Time	Conflicting Events	Trade?
Tokyo Open	07:00–10:00	RBNZ Decision (~09:00), AUD CPI (~09:30) — Tue 26 only	⚠️ CAUTION Tue
London Open	14:00–17:00	Clear Wed/Thu. ECB Minutes possible Thu 28.	✅ CLEAR
New York Open	19:00–22:00	FOMC Minutes Wed 27, GDP Thu 28, PCE Fri 29	❌ CHECK DAILY

3.4 Central Bank Speakers This Week

THT Time	Speaker	Central Bank	Currency	Topic / Note
Tue 26 ~09:30	Governor Breman	RBNZ	NZD	Post-rate decision presser — first under new Governor. Watch forward guidance closely.
Wed 27 ~19:00	FOMC Committee	Federal Reserve	USD	FOMC Minutes release — potential for hawkish signals reinforcing Waller's tone.
TBC	Multiple ECB Members	ECB	EUR	ECB Minutes released this week. Dovish bias expected; watch EUR reaction.

04 News & Headlines

Bloomberg / Reuters

Bloomberg/Reuters

Fed's Waller argues easing bias should be removed from FOMC statement; calls rate cuts "crazy" given hot April CPI/PPI/NFP data.

Reuters

Kevin Warsh sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve Chair — first remarks broadly market-neutral, signalling continuity.

Bloomberg

US/Iran nuclear talks: Qatari and Pakistani officials in Tehran; Sky News Arabia reports broad outlines understanding reached — Iranian FM disputes this.

Reuters

WTI settles at $96.60, Brent at $103.54 — crude sees two-way trade on conflicting Iran deal reports; Trump "frustrated," raising possibility of decisive military action.

Bloomberg

UoM Consumer Sentiment revised to record low of 44.8; 5-yr inflation expectations jump to 3.9% — Oxford Economics flags risk of de-anchoring Fed policy.

FXStreet / DailyFX / Newsquawk

FXStreet

Week ahead highlights: RBNZ expected to hold at 2.25% (first meeting under Governor Breman); Australian CPI and Tokyo CPI key for AUD and JPY direction.

DailyFX

US PCE (April) on Friday is the defining risk event — a hot print would cement Waller's hawkish view and push rate hike pricing deeper into year-end.

Newsquawk

Canadian retail sales impressed in April — CAD briefly supported before USD strength reasserted. Canada GDP (March) due Friday.

Newsquawk

Japanese inflation cooler than expected; UK retail sales disappointed. Both had minimal immediate FX impact amid broader geopolitical focus.

Newsquawk

China launches major crackdown on cross-border stock trading — negative for Asia risk sentiment; AUD/NZD face indirect pressure from China exposure.

4.8 News Impact Summary by Currency

Currency	News Bias	Key Catalyst
USD	HAWKISH / BULL	Waller hawkish pivot; 1 hike priced year-end; record-low UoM sentiment inflation expectations anchoring USD
EUR	DOVISH / BEAR	ECB Minutes expected dovish; EUR flat on week; ECB cutting cycle intact; EURCHF in freefall
GBP	MIXED / MILD BEAR	UK retail sales disappointed; CHF and GBP both outperformed vs USD marginally Friday; BOE path unclear
JPY	NEUTRAL / MILD BULL	Japanese CPI cooler than expected but structural JPY rally intact; BOJ gradual tightening narrative; intervention risk at 160
AUD	HAWKISH / BULL (potential)	RBA hiking cycle underway (+3 hikes); Australian CPI due Tue — hot print could sharply reverse AUD weakness
NZD	DOVISH / BEAR	RBNZ expected on hold; Governor Breman cautious on further moves; China crackdown adds pressure
CAD	NEUTRAL / MILD BEAR	Canadian retail sales beat but USD/CAD uptrend intact; Canada GDP Friday is key; BOC neutral
CHF	STRONG BULL	Safe-haven demand amid US/Iran geopolitical uncertainty; CHF strongest currency this week; EURCHF collapse

05 Macro · Market Regime

5.1 Global Risk Sentiment

Risk Regime

MIXED

Risk-on equities vs geopo fear

SPX / NDX

7,473 / 29,482

Both higher; RSP outperform

VIX

Elevated

Not extreme but Iran risk premium

WTI / Brent

$96.60 / $103.54

Above $100 = inflationary pressure

Regime Assessment: RISK-ON WITH ELEVATED GEOPOLITICAL TAIL RISK. Equities are at record levels (DJIA 50,585 new high) but the market is priced for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. Any escalation — particularly US military action against Iran — would trigger an immediate risk-off shock: CHF/JPY surge, crude spike, equities sell off, EM and commodity currencies crushed. The base case for equities remains bullish (AI-driven earnings, strong US labour market) but the risk distribution is fat-tailed on the geopolitical side.

5.2 Central Bank Stance Matrix

Central Bank	Currency	Stance	Last Decision	Next Event	Rate
Federal Reserve	USD	HAWKISH (pivot)	On Hold	FOMC Minutes Wed 27; PCE Fri 29	3.50–3.75%
ECB	EUR	DOVISH / CUTTING	Cutting	ECB Minutes this week	~2.50%
BOE	GBP	NEUTRAL	On Hold	Next MPC TBC	~4.25%
BOJ	JPY	MILD HAWKISH	Gradual hiking	Tokyo CPI Mon 25	~0.50%
RBA	AUD	HAWKISH	+3 hikes	AUD CPI Tue 26	~4.60%
RBNZ	NZD	ON HOLD / NEUTRAL	Cut to 2.25%	Decision Tue 26 ~09:00 THT	2.25%
BOC	CAD	NEUTRAL	On Hold	Canada GDP Fri 29	~2.75%
SNB	CHF	NEUTRAL / MILD DOVE	On Hold	Next SNB TBC	~0.25%

Monetary Policy Theme: Divergence intensifying. Fed pivoting hawkish while ECB is cutting. RBA hiking. RBNZ paused. This divergence is the structural driver of current FX moves: EUR weakness, USD strength, AUD potential recovery on CPI upside.

5.3 Intermarket Dashboard

Asset	Level / Price	Direction	Signal for FX
DXY	~98.80–99.40	↑ BULL	USD bid broadly; selling in EUR, GBP, JPY pairs
US 10Y Yield	4.556%	→ FLATTEN	Long end bid = geopo fear; short end sell = hawkish Fed
Gold (XAU/USD)	~3,200 est.	↓ PULLBACK	Risk-on Friday; any Iran escalation = gold spike
WTI Crude	$96.60	↑ ELEVATED	Above $100 = inflationary; stagflation risk if sustained
S&P 500	7,473	↑ NEW HIGH	Risk-on equities; AUD/NZD partially supported
DAX 40	24,928 (+1.31%)	↑	European equities outperformed Friday
Nikkei 225	TBC	→	JPY strength at 160 = headwind for Nikkei
Bitcoin (BTC)	Ranging	→	Macro risk asset — watch correlation with equities
VIX	Elevated	→ WATCHFUL	Not extreme; spike = risk-off FX rotation

5.4 Macro Regime Classification

Growth Outlook	US: Slowing (negative Q1 GDP) \| Europe: Weak \| Asia: Mixed
Inflation Trend	Rising (US CPI/PPI hot, UoM 5yr exp jump to 3.9%)
Policy Direction	Fed: Pivoting Hawkish \| ECB: Easing \| RBA: Hiking \| RBNZ: On Hold
Risk Appetite	Risk-On (equities) / Geopolitical Fear (CHF/JPY bid)
USD Regime	BULL — Waller hawkish + safe-haven + rate differential
Carry Trade Active	Partial — High-yielders under pressure from USD strength + risk tail

5.5 Key Macro Risks This Week

1️⃣ US/Iran Escalation Risk — Long weekend diplomatic binary. Decisive action by Trump = crude spike, CHF/JPY surge, risk-off shock. Deal = crude collapse, risk-on surge.

2️⃣ PCE Friday (Apr) — The most important US data point this week. Hot print confirms Waller's narrative and cements year-end hike pricing. USD could push to new highs.

3️⃣ RBNZ + Australian CPI Tuesday — AUD CPI hot = RBA narrative reinforced, potential sharp AUD recovery. RBNZ tone on future cuts will define NZD path through end-Q2.

06 Trading Plan — 28 Pair Scan 6H · Pepperstone · May 24, 2026 12:41 THT

6.1 Pair-by-Pair 6H Scan

Pair	Trend	Bias	EMA Stack	Nearest Level	Note
USD/JPY	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed/Compression	158.591 / 160.000	Coiling near 159. Intervention risk above 160. Waller USD bid vs BOJ hiking narrative — balanced.
AUD/USD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Full Bear (below all EMAs)	0.71292 / 0.70793	Sharp reversal from 0.7272 high. CPI Tue could reverse sharply — avoid shorts before data.
NZD/USD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Full Bear	0.58491 / 0.58150	Dropped from 0.5943 high. RBNZ hold priced; downside continuation likely unless surprise cut unwinds.
USD/CHF	BEARISH (USD)	USDCHF BEAR	Full Bear	0.79068 resistance	CHF structural strength. Geopo safe-haven demand. USD fighting uphill vs CHF even with Waller.
GBP/USD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Full Bear	1.34352 / 1.33025	Trending lower since 1.36+. EMA stack confirming. Key target 1.33025 support zone.
EUR/USD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear / Mixed	1.16020 / 1.15976	Declining from 1.17215. ECB dovish narrative vs Fed hawkish pivot. Strong directional case.
USD/CAD	BULLISH	LONG BIAS	Full Bull	1.37309 support	Clean uptrend. Holding above all EMAs. 1.38212 current. Targets 1.39+.
AUD/JPY	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed	112.634 / 115.000	Lost momentum from highs. AUD weakness vs JPY bid = balanced. Skip.
NZD/JPY	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed/Compression	92.493 / 93.802	Consolidating. RBNZ Tuesday will be key catalyst. Avoid ahead of data.
CHF/JPY	BULLISH	LONG BIAS	Full Bull	201.087 / 202.761	CHF strength + JPY rangebound. Holding above MAs. Safe-haven bid theme.
GBP/JPY	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	213.849 / 211.138	Down from 220+. EMA stack turning. GBP weakness driving lower.
EUR/JPY	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	185.209 / 184.035	EUR weakness dominant driver. Declining cleanly.
CAD/JPY	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear / Mixed	115.772 / 114.667	Dropped from highs. CAD + JPY mixed. EMA compression below resistance.
GBP/AUD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	1.89099 / 1.85391	Downtrend intact. Watch AUD CPI Tue — hot print accelerates GBP/AUD drop.
GBP/NZD	MILD BULL	LONG BIAS	Mixed/Mild Bull	2.29650 / 2.27701	GBP outperforming NZD relatively. Modest. RBNZ Tuesday key.
GBP/CHF	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Full Bear	1.05959 / 1.04640	Strong downtrend. CHF strength crushing GBP/CHF. High-conviction setup.
GBP/CAD	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed	1.85683 / 1.83023	Choppy structure. Avoid.
EUR/AUD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Full Bear	1.63820 / 1.61109	EUR weak vs AUD. Downtrend off 1.68+ highs. CPI Tue = acceleration risk.
EUR/NZD	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	1.99376 / 1.97134	Testing 2.00 support. EUR weakness dominant driver.
EUR/CHF	STRONG BEAR	SHORT BIAS	Full Bear (extreme)	0.91698 / 0.91073	⭐ STRONGEST TECHNICAL DOWNTREND. EURCHF in freefall. CHF safe-haven + ECB cutting = extreme divergence.
EUR/GBP	INFLECTION	MIXED	Mixed/Volatile	0.86616 / 0.87300	Sharp spike then reversal. Volatile. Both currencies weak. Avoid.
EUR/CAD	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed/Compression	1.60356 / 1.59409	Consolidating. Both currencies weak differently. Skip.
AUD/NZD	RANGING	MILD BULL	Mixed/Mild	1.21352 / 1.22483	AUD outperforming NZD slightly. CPI/RBNZ Tuesday will define direction.
AUD/CHF	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	0.56402 / 0.55954	CHF dominance. Downtrend. CPI Tue could snap bounce upward — caution.
AUD/CAD	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed/Compression	0.98529 / 0.97460	Both currencies mixed. No clear edge.
NZD/CHF	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	0.45910 / 0.45801	CHF dominance drives NZD/CHF lower. RBNZ hold adds NZD weakness.
NZD/CAD	RANGING	NEUTRAL	Mixed	0.81097 / 0.80007	Choppy. Both currencies weak. No edge.
CAD/CHF	BEARISH	SHORT BIAS	Bear	0.57456 resistance / 0.56786	CAD weakness vs CHF strength. Clean downtrend below all EMAs.

6.2 Currency Strength Ranking

Rank	Currency	Tech Score	News Bias	Combined	Momentum State	Visual
1	CHF	+7	+2	+9	STRONG BULL	+9
2	USD	+4	+2	+6	BULL	+6
3	JPY	+2	+1	+3	MILD BULL	+3
4	AUD	+1	0	+1	MILD BULL	+1
5	CAD	-3	-1	-4	BEAR	-4
6	NZD	-3	-2	-5	BEAR	-5
7	GBP	-3	-2	-5	BEAR	-5
8	EUR	-5	-3	-8	STRONG BEAR	-8

6.3 Top Markets to Trade This Week

#	Pair	Direction	Entry Zone	SL Area	TP1	TP2	Conv.	Key Reason
1	EUR/CHF	SHORT	0.9165–0.9175	0.9215	0.9110	0.9060	HIGH	Strongest CHF (+9) vs Weakest EUR (-8). EURCHF in freefall. Full Bear EMA stack. ECB cutting vs CHF safe-haven. No near-term fundamental catalyst to reverse.
2	GBP/CHF	SHORT	1.0580–1.0600	1.0645	1.0490	1.0400	HIGH	CHF vs weak GBP. Full Bear EMA stack confirmed. Clean downtrend off 1.07+ highs. UK retail miss adds fundamental weight.
3	EUR/USD	SHORT	1.1620–1.1640	1.1680	1.1560	1.1500	HIGH	USD Bull (+6) vs EUR Bear (-8). Waller hawkish pivot vs ECB cutting cycle. PCE Friday could accelerate the move. Bear EMA structure confirmed.
4	USD/CAD	LONG	1.3780–1.3800	1.3730	1.3880	1.3950	MEDIUM	Strong USD vs weak CAD (-4). Full Bull EMA stack. Clean uptrend. Canada GDP Friday = volatility risk. Manage position size.
5	NZD/CHF	SHORT	0.4590–0.4600	0.4630	0.4540	0.4500	MEDIUM	Weak NZD (-5) vs Strong CHF (+9). RBNZ hold confirms NZD cap. CHF geopo bid. Bear structure in place. Wait for RBNZ confirmation Tuesday.

Pairs to AVOID This Week:

• AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD — AUD CPI Tue 26 could reverse all AUD setups sharply. Wait for post-data confirmation.
• NZD pairs (all) — RBNZ Tue 26 ~09:00 THT. Avoid 1hr before/after decision.
• EUR/GBP — Both currencies weak; volatile structure; no clean edge.
• GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD — Choppy/ranging structures; no conviction.
• Any pair on Sunday/Monday during US/UK/EU holiday thin liquidity.

6.4 Session Game Plan

🌏 TOKYO07:00–10:00 THT

Approach: OBSERVE ONLY (Mon 25)
US/UK/EU markets all closed. Extreme thin liquidity. Only JPY crosses and AUD/NZD may move on Japan data or weekend Middle East headlines.

Tuesday 26: ⚠️ RBNZ at ~09:00 + AUD CPI at ~09:30 — both fall inside Tokyo Kill Zone. Avoid NZD and AUD positions until post-data settlement.

🏛️ LONDON14:00–17:00 THT

Approach: SELECTIVE — Tue 26 onwards
London opens Tuesday after long weekend. Expect momentum continuation in EURCHF, GBPCHF, and EURUSD as institutional flows resume. This is the primary kill zone for setups #1, #2, #3.

Watch for RBNZ follow-through at London open Tuesday. Wednesday + Thursday London = cleanest windows for EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF entries.

🗽 NEW YORK19:00–22:00 THT

Approach: EVENT-DRIVEN CAUTION
NY opens Tuesday. Major risk events hit NY session all week:
• Wed 27 ~19:00: FOMC Minutes ❌
• Thu 28 ~19:30: US GDP ❌
• Fri 29 ~19:30: PCE ❌

Apply 15-min blackout before/after each release. PCE Friday is the week's biggest event — no entries 18:45–20:00 THT Friday.

Correlated Exposure Warning: Setups #1 (EUR/CHF), #2 (GBP/CHF), #3 (EUR/USD), #5 (NZD/CHF) all share CHF or EUR as base/quote. Selling EUR or buying CHF across multiple pairs creates concentrated exposure. Treat as max 2 CHF pairs simultaneously and halve position sizes if stacking.

∑ Report Summary

Date	Sunday, 24 May 2026 · 12:41 THT
Next Session	Tokyo (Mon 25) → Full return Tue 26
Risk Sentiment	MIXED — Risk-On Equities / Geopo Tail
Macro Regime	Stagflation risk rising · Divergent CB policy
USD Bias	BULL — Waller hawkish pivot
Strongest Currency	CHF (+9) — Safe-haven + ECB divergence
Weakest Currency	EUR (-8) — ECB cutting + CHF structural bid
Top Setup	EUR/CHF SHORT · High Conviction
Key Risk This Week	US/Iran escalation · PCE Friday · AUD CPI Tue
Overall Approach	SELECTIVE — Wait for Tue 26 full liquidity

Invalidation Check ✅

No conflicting high-impact news in next 2 hours before any entry (FOMC Min Wed, GDP Thu, PCE Fri are blackout events)

HTF (Daily/Weekly) bias still intact — confirm EUR/CHF remains below weekly structure before adding to shorts

Currency strength ranking unchanged — re-scan after AUD CPI (Tue) and RBNZ (Tue) results before adding NZD/AUD pairs

Position sizing accounts for CHF-heavy correlation exposure — max 2 CHF pairs at half size simultaneously

No Middle East escalation gap risk — check news at Tokyo open before entering any position on Monday night

USD/CAD LONG: confirm 1.3780 holds as support before entry — GDP and PCE are downside tail risks for this setup