Week 6. Wed Oct 14 edition, FINAL, closed Mon Oct 19, 9:19pm PT. Moneylines are ESPN consensus from Oct 12-13 (early week, will move). The Friday injury and price check is in Flags. Props and ATD prices live on the TD board (re-snapshotted Oct 16). Not live quotes. Re-shop every leg.
Shape: two value dogs plus one heavy-favorite anchor, home dogs first. Week 5 recap: 1 of 5 tickets cashed (E, +1029). Home dogs this week: Falcons +145 (vs CHI), Broncos +124 (vs SEA, Thursday), Browns +190 (vs BAL), Raiders +210 (vs BUF), Giants -105 (vs NO). Heavy anchors: Rams -675, 49ers -440, Chiefs -360, Colts -325, Patriots -325. The dog well is OK this week, not dry.
Flags (Fri Oct 16): TNF FINAL: DEN 17, SEA 14 in OT, so the Broncos +124 leg on Ticket B WON. Penix (ATL QB) is OFF the injury report and starting (ESPN, Oct 18). Caleb Williams (CHI) is playing (ESPN, Oct 18), which firms up the Bears offense behind the -3. BAL at CLE: Lamar Jackson is OUT, Tyler Huntley starts, and Ravens C Jurgens is out too (NFL.com and ESPN, Oct 16); the Browns start Watson. Sunday official inactives: Browns RB Judkins is INACTIVE (ankle) (clevelandbrowns.com, Oct 18), which hurts the Browns +190 legs on A and C; Penix is ACTIVE and starting with Bijan active (atlantafalcons.com, Oct 18); Taylor is ACTIVE (colts.com, Oct 18). Henry (BAL) and Swift (CHI) are ACTIVE on the official inactives lists (NFL.com tracker, Oct 18). Afternoon officials (Oct 18): Rams inactives have no skill surprises (anchor legs unaffected, NFL.com tracker); Raiders inactives O'Connell, McCollum, Johnson, Slone, Cabeldue, Hemingway (raiders.com, 11:55am PT), no impact on the Raiders +210 leg; Chargers out Derwin James, Tre' Harris, Shelley, D. Jackson, Dupree, Awosika, Alt (chargers.com), which helps the Chiefs -360 anchor on C and the Walker legs. Walker is ACTIVE (chiefs.com, Oct 18). 10am window graded: Falcons LOST 23-31 to CHI, so Tickets A, B and the two-leg are DEAD. Browns WON 13-10 over BAL without Judkins, the Browns legs on A and C hit. Ravens lost, so the prop build is dead. Sunday FINALS: Rams LOST 16-18 to ARI, so the anchor legs failed anyway. Chiefs WON 22-6 (anchor leg on C hit). Raiders lost 30-33 to BUF, so Ticket C is DEAD despite the Browns and Chiefs wins. Shootout: Packers WON 23-13 (ML leg hit) but Watson (3-64) and Pickens (6-73) both blanked, so the build is dead. Final Week 6 Sunday: no ticket cashed. Winning legs: Broncos +124 (Thu), Browns +190, Chiefs -360, Packers -115. KC: Rashee Rice is OUT and the Chargers are missing Derwin James (chiefs.com, Oct 16). Friday price check: the market has moved off the Oct 12-13 stamps, Rams -877 to -900 (CBS Oct 13, SI Oct 14), Chiefs -439, 49ers -424, Falcons +136 to +149, Browns +190 to +215, Raiders +226. Tickets keep their stamped prices; re-shop every leg. Byes: Detroit, Cincinnati, Miami, Minnesota.
Week 6 final scorecard (Mon Oct 19): No ticket cashed. A +716 LOST (Falcons 23-31; Browns won, Rams lost 16-18). B +574 LOST (Falcons; the Thursday Broncos win was stranded). C +1049 LOST by one leg (Browns +190 WON 13-10, Chiefs -360 WON 22-6, Raiders lost 30-33). Two-leg +181 LOST (Falcons; Rams lost). Prop build LOST (Ravens 10-13). Shootout +1016 LOST (Packers -115 WON 23-13 but Watson and Pickens blanked). MNF: 49ers -440 WON 23-17, moot since B was already dead. Winning legs: Broncos +124, Browns +190, Chiefs -360, Packers -115, 49ers -440. Losing legs: Falcons x3, Rams x2, Raiders, Ravens, Watson, Pickens.
Tickets
Ticket A: Two home dogs plus the Rams (LOST, Falcons fell 23-31)+716
Falcons and Browns at home, Rams as the anchor. Falcons and Browns both kick off 10am PT, Rams 1:05pm PT.
$100 pays $816 total ($716 profit), odds +716. Straight-multiply price.
Falcons ML +145 ATL +3 vs CHI (home dog), Sun 10am PT · implied 41% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Browns ML +190 CLE +4.5 vs BAL (home dog), Sun 10am PT · implied 34% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Rams ML -675 LAR -12.5 vs ARI, Sun 1:05pm PT · implied 87% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Correlation: Separate games. Rams ML is a heavy favorite, not a lock, a Rams loss still loses the ticket.
Case: Both dogs are home teams with short spreads (+3 and +4.5), and BAL-CLE has a 40.5 total, a low-scoring game keeps the dog live. Lamar Jackson is OUT (Huntley starts, NFL.com Oct 16), which helps the Browns leg.
Killer: Penix is confirmed ACTIVE and starting (Falcons official inactives, Oct 18), so the remaining killer is either dog losing. If the Rams lose, the whole ticket still loses (about a 13% price-implied chance).
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +610 ($710). Adding the Rams ML -675 lifts it to +716 ($816), about $106 more, for the risk that a heavy favorite still loses.
Swaps (preferred first): Falcons ML to Falcons +3 (preferred if the Sunday inactives bring a surprise, price not sourced, shop it). Browns ML to Browns +4.5 (price not sourced). Rams to 49ers -440 (Monday), the closest verified heavy favorite, pays more and loses more often.
Similar-price alternative: No verified anchor at a truly similar price to Rams -675 exists. Payout-increasing alternative: Colts ML -325 or Patriots ML -325 (ESPN, Oct 12-13), about 76% implied vs 87%, so they lose more often.
Killer: Penix is confirmed ACTIVE and starting (Falcons official inactives, Oct 18), so the remaining killer is either dog losing. If the Rams lose, the whole ticket still loses (about a 13% price-implied chance).
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +610 ($710). Adding the Rams ML -675 lifts it to +716 ($816), about $106 more, for the risk that a heavy favorite still loses.
Swaps (preferred first): Falcons ML to Falcons +3 (preferred if the Sunday inactives bring a surprise, price not sourced, shop it). Browns ML to Browns +4.5 (price not sourced). Rams to 49ers -440 (Monday), the closest verified heavy favorite, pays more and loses more often.
Similar-price alternative: No verified anchor at a truly similar price to Rams -675 exists. Payout-increasing alternative: Colts ML -325 or Patriots ML -325 (ESPN, Oct 12-13), about 76% implied vs 87%, so they lose more often.
Ticket B: Thursday dog, Falcons, 49ers (LOST, Falcons fell 23-31)+574
Broncos at home Thursday, Falcons at home, 49ers Monday anchor.
$100 pays $674 total ($574 profit), odds +574. Straight-multiply price.
Broncos ML +124 DEN +3 vs SEA (home dog), Thu · WON 17-14 OT · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Falcons ML +145 ATL +3 vs CHI, Sun 10am PT · implied 41% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
49ers ML -440 SF -7.5 vs WAS, Mon 5:15pm PT · implied 81% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Correlation: Separate games. The Broncos leg is already banked (won Thursday night). Falcons go Sunday, 49ers Monday.
Case: Broncos are home Thursday and settle first. Falcons home. 49ers are the biggest road-game favorite on Monday.
Killer: Penix is confirmed ACTIVE (Falcons official, Oct 18). The 49ers losing still loses everything (about 19% implied).
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +449 ($549). The 49ers ML -440 lifts it to +574 ($674), about $125 more.
Swaps (preferred first): Broncos ML to Broncos +3 (shop, price not sourced). Falcons ML to Giants ML -105 for a safer home dog. 49ers to Rams -675 (pays less, safer).
Similar-price alternative: No verified anchor near -440 besides Chiefs -360 and Rams -675. Payout-increasing alternative: Chiefs ML -360 (about 78% implied vs 81%).
Killer: Penix is confirmed ACTIVE (Falcons official, Oct 18). The 49ers losing still loses everything (about 19% implied).
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +449 ($549). The 49ers ML -440 lifts it to +574 ($674), about $125 more.
Swaps (preferred first): Broncos ML to Broncos +3 (shop, price not sourced). Falcons ML to Giants ML -105 for a safer home dog. 49ers to Rams -675 (pays less, safer).
Similar-price alternative: No verified anchor near -440 besides Chiefs -360 and Rams -675. Payout-increasing alternative: Chiefs ML -360 (about 78% implied vs 81%).
Ticket C: Raiders and Browns plus the Chiefs (LOST, Raiders fell 30-33)+1049
Two bigger home dogs, Chiefs anchor.
$100 pays $1149 total ($1049 profit), odds +1049. Straight-multiply price.
Raiders ML +210 LV +6 vs BUF (home dog), Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 32% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Browns ML +190 CLE +4.5 vs BAL, Sun 10am PT · implied 34% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Chiefs ML -360 KC -8.5 vs LAC, Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 78% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Correlation: Separate games. Longest shot of the three, both dogs are 4.5 points or more underdogs on the spread.
Case: Two bigger home dogs. Raiders are +6 at home but BUF-LV total jumped to 52.5, which helps the dog. Lamar Jackson is OUT for Baltimore (Huntley starts, Oct 16), which helps the Browns leg.
Killer: Bills win by 7 or more. Both dogs need to win outright. The Chiefs losing still loses the ticket (about 22% implied).
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +799 ($899). Chiefs ML -360 lifts it to +1049 ($1,149), about $250 more.
Swaps (preferred first): Raiders ML to Raiders +6 (preferred, price not sourced). Browns ML to Browns +4.5. Chiefs to Colts -325 (pays more, loses more often).
Similar-price alternative: Payout-increasing alternative: Patriots ML -325 or Colts ML -325 (about 76% implied vs 78%), small change in payout.
Killer: Bills win by 7 or more. Both dogs need to win outright. The Chiefs losing still loses the ticket (about 22% implied).
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +799 ($899). Chiefs ML -360 lifts it to +1049 ($1,149), about $250 more.
Swaps (preferred first): Raiders ML to Raiders +6 (preferred, price not sourced). Browns ML to Browns +4.5. Chiefs to Colts -325 (pays more, loses more often).
Similar-price alternative: Payout-increasing alternative: Patriots ML -325 or Colts ML -325 (about 76% implied vs 78%), small change in payout.
Two-leg option: Falcons + Rams (LOST, Falcons fell 23-31)+181
If you want fewer legs. One home dog plus the anchor.
$100 pays $281 total ($181 profit), odds +181. Straight-multiply price.
Falcons ML +145 ATL +3 vs CHI · implied 41% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Rams ML -675 LAR -12.5 vs ARI · implied 87% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Correlation: Separate games.
Other builds (not the two-dogs shape)
Prop build: Ravens, Henry, Walker (LOST, Ravens fell 10-13)+246
3 legs. One game-linked pair.
$100 pays $346 total ($246 profit), odds +246. Straight-multiply price.
Ravens ML -230 BAL -4.5 at CLE · implied 70% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Derrick Henry ATD -164 BAL at CLE · implied 62% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Kenneth Walker III ATD -200 KC vs LAC (KC home), Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 67% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Ravens ML and Henry ATD are linked. Walker is a separate game.
WARNING Oct 16: Lamar Jackson is OUT (Huntley starts). The Ravens ML -230 leg no longer matches its Oct 12-13 price. Skip or re-shop this build.
WARNING Oct 16: Lamar Jackson is OUT (Huntley starts). The Ravens ML -230 leg no longer matches its Oct 12-13 price. Skip or re-shop this build.
Packers shootout (LOST, Watson and Pickens no TD)+1016
3 legs, all DAL at GB, SNF. Linked on purpose.
$100 pays $1116 total ($1016 profit), odds +1016. Straight-multiply price.
Packers ML -115 GB -1.5 vs DAL, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 53% · ESPN odds, Oct 12-13
Christian Watson ATD +117 DAL at GB · implied 46% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Pickens ATD +175 DAL at GB · implied 36% · DK via OddsShopper, Oct 14
Correlation: All three need Green Bay moving the ball. Heavily correlated, one bet really.
Passes
Passes (Hans Gruber says no)
Rams -12.5 vs ARI
Spread number is huge and the total jumped 6 points. No edge.
Chiefs ML -360
Too short to be a leg.
49ers ML -440
Same.
Panthers at Eagles
Pick-em at -102/-118. Coin flip.
Sources: ESPN Week 6 odds (espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/50147670/2026-nfl-week-6-schedule-odds-point-spreads-totals, Oct 12-13) · CBS Week 6 odds (Oct 13) · SI moneyline picks (Oct 14) · nfl.com and espn.com, Lamar Jackson out (Oct 16) · sports.yahoo.com Falcons final injury report (Oct 16) · chiefs.com injury report (Oct 16) · official inactives atlantafalcons.com, colts.com, clevelandbrowns.com, patriots.com (Oct 18) · pro-football-reference.com TNF box score · TD prices as on the Anytime TD board (Oct 16). Week 5 grading from recaps.
Next: Sun 5:00am PT London inactives, 8:30am PT for the 10am window (Penix), 11:35am PT for the afternoon games, 3:45pm PT for SNF, Mon 3:45pm PT for MNF.