Week 9. Wed Nov 4 edition, published Wed Nov 4, 6:20pm PT, updated Thu Nov 5 and repriced Sat Nov 7, 6:31pm PT; 10am-window inactives verified Sun Nov 8, 8:53am PT; late-window inactives verified 12:04pm PT; Sunday graded Nov 8, 9:23pm PT; Monday graded Nov 9, 9:55pm PT. Moneylines and spreads are DraftKings via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT. Game times verified on the ESPN schedule. Lines move during the week; the Friday and Saturday checks update this page in place. Not live quotes. Re-shop every leg.
Week 8 final scorecard (two-legger the only clean ticket)graded
Legs won/lost from official box scores; no verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no payout is claimed. Two-leg DEN + JAX: both legs WON (DEN 28-24 over KC, JAX 42-7 over IND). Ticket A 2/3 (DEN and JAX won; BAL lost 36-10 - Lamar out after one play, thumb surgery and IR). Ticket B 1/3 (CIN survived 43-36; MIN and CLE lost). Ticket C 0/3 (BAL, ATL shut out 16-0, DAL -310 lost 33-30 in OT). Dogs went 1/5 Sunday - only the near-pick'em home dog (DEN) hit - and anchors 2/3, with a -310 losing outright a week after a -520 did the same. ML legs: 5 of 11. Week 9 carries the anchor-spread lesson forward.
Week 7 final scorecard (no ticket went clean)graded
Second straight week with no clean ticket. Legs hit/missed only, from official box scores; no verified sportsbook quote or wager exists, so no payout is claimed. HIT: Falcons +124 (ATL 29-20 over SF), Vikings -310 (MIN 16-10 over IND). MISSED: Raiders +145 (21-35 vs LAR), Texans -520 (21-27 vs NYG, the week's biggest favorite losing outright), Cardinals +185 (16-30 vs DEN), Saints +136 (10-16 vs PIT in Paris), Titans +110 (24-27 vs CLE), Eagles +180 (21-38 vs DAL Monday). Final leg record: 2 hit, 9 missed. The Texans anchor sat on three of four tickets - one favorite losing killed the board. That is why Week 8 spreads the anchor risk across three different favorites.
Week 6 final scorecard (no ticket went clean)
No ticket saw every leg hit; legs graded from official box scores, no wagers placed or verified. A +716 MISSED (Falcons 23-31). B +574 MISSED (Falcons). C +1049 MISSED by one leg (Browns +190 and Chiefs -360 hit, Raiders lost 30-33). Two-leg +181 MISSED (Falcons). Prop build MISSED (Ravens 10-13). Shootout +1016 MISSED (Packers -115 hit, Watson and Pickens blanked). Legs that hit: Broncos +124, Browns +190, Chiefs -360, Packers -115, 49ers -440.
Shape: two value dogs plus one heavy-favorite anchor, home dogs first. Three-week lesson applied: a -520 anchor lost outright in Week 7 and a -310 in Week 8, so the three anchors are three different favorites again (Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks) - all three are home favorites; no road favorite lays wood on this board. Home dogs this week: Panthers +120, Falcons +145, Eagles +130, Vikings +142 (Mon, Wentz starting), Chargers +200, Commanders +195, Colts +190, Dolphins +235. Road dog used: Packers +145 (rest case).
Flags (updated Sun Nov 8): Lamar Jackson (thumb surgery) is on IR and Tyler Huntley (toe) is OUT - undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano starts Thursday vs JAX (baltimoreravens.com/nfl.com, Nov 4). Jalen Hurts is on IR - the Eagles/agent joint statement confirms deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli, treated with blood thinners; the team sets no return timetable (philadelphiaeagles.com, Oct 19). Eagles benched McKee - Joe Milton III makes his first career start vs the Giants Sunday (AP/ESPN/NFL.com, Nov 4). Kyler Murray is OUT Monday (hamstring, week-to-week) - Carson Wentz starts for Minnesota (vikings.com/AP, Nov 5-6); Ticket B's MIN leg case is revised below. A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) is OUT and Hunter Henry (foot) ACTIVE for New England - Packers env improves. Pickens (hamstring/shoulder) OUT Sunday, with CB Porter and LB Overshown also out (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8) - Colts dog case improves. Washington's defensive line is depleted (Payne, Kinlaw out) - Commanders dog risk. Friday report (nfl.com, Nov 6): Sam Darnold (quad/ribs) OUT - Drew Lock starts for Seattle, with LT Cross, G Nelson and DT Leonard Williams also out; 49ers WRs Evans, Samuel and Kirk all OUT (McCaffrey confirmed ACTIVE Sunday); DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks OUT for the Eagles (Milton without his top two WRs); Garrett Wilson (concussion) OUT for the Jets; Micah Parsons remains on Reserve/PUP (knee recovery, practice window open), not a new gameday inactive; Panthers down four defensive starters (Phillips, Okereke, Lee, Lewis); St. Brown (rib) ACTIVE per team-site inactives (detroitlions.com, Nov 8). Sunday 10am-window inactives (panthers.com, commanders.com, chiefs.com, philadelphiaeagles.com, colts.com, dallascowboys.com, detroitlions.com, Nov 8): no 10am ticket-leg swaps needed; previously flagged team absences still apply. Late-window update (12:04pm PT): McCaffrey, Jacobs, JSN and Drew Lock ACTIVE. SF gets Nick Bosa and Marques Sigle back, plus DeForest Buckner following the trade. Demarcus Robinson returns at WR; Evans/Samuel remain out and Kirk is on IR. Seattle is still down Darnold, Cross, Nelson, Leonard Williams, Nwosu, Pili and Shaheed. Arizona gets Walter Nolen III and Isaiah Adams back. Picks unchanged; displayed prices remain Saturday snapshots. Packers roster check: Parsons remains Reserve/PUP; Chris Brooks remains Reserve/Injured, not activated. Official late-window inactives, Nov 8: 49ers · Seahawks/Cardinals · Packers · Patriots. Byes: PIT, TEN.
Week 9 final grading ยท 9:55pm PT: Week 9 final scorecard: A 1/3; B 1/3; C 2/3; two-leg 1/2. No ticket has all legs hit. Across unique ML picks: 4 hit, 5 missed - Monday MIN MISSED (6-23 vs BUF, Wentz started).
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
ESPN Sunday final scores
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
ESPN Sunday final scores
Tickets
Ticket A: Panthers and Commanders plus the Chiefs1/3 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/3 HIT - closed
KC HIT (35-12 vs NYJ); CAR MISSED (21-26 vs DEN); WSH MISSED (13-20 vs LAR).
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
KC HIT (35-12 vs NYJ); CAR MISSED (21-26 vs DEN); WSH MISSED (13-20 vs LAR).
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Two home dogs, then the week's heaviest home anchor. All three legs Sunday 10am PT.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $770 total ($670 profit), odds +670. Straight-multiply price.
Panthers ML +120 CAR +2.5 vs DEN (home dog), Sun 10am PT · implied 45% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Commanders ML +195 WSH +4.5 vs LAR (home dog), Sun 10am PT · implied 34% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Chiefs ML -535 KC -9.5 vs NYJ, Sun 10am PT · implied 84% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games. Chiefs ML is a heavy favorite, not a lock - a -520 and a -310 anchor both lost outright the last two weeks.
Case: Carolina catches 2.5 at home against a Denver team playing its second straight road game off an emotional division win over Kansas City. Washington gets the Rams on a cross-country trip, Daniels off a 27-10 Sunday night win; the Commanders' depleted defensive line (Payne, Kinlaw out) is why the price is +195 instead of +145. Kansas City anchors at home against a Jets team now missing Garrett Wilson (concussion).
Killer: Denver's defense, with Surtain back, can strangle Carolina's offense, and Washington's gutted front could let the Rams hang 30, and Carolina's defense is down four starters (Phillips, Okereke, Lee, Lewis). Any one miss kills it.
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +549 ($649). Adding Chiefs -535 lifts it to +670 ($770), about $121 more, for the risk a -535 favorite still loses (~16% implied).
Swaps (preferred first): Panthers to Falcons +145 (Germany game). Commanders to Chargers +200 (home vs Houston). Chiefs to 49ers -500 (hosts the Raiders).
Similar-price alt: None cleaner at current prices without reusing legs.
Killer: Denver's defense, with Surtain back, can strangle Carolina's offense, and Washington's gutted front could let the Rams hang 30, and Carolina's defense is down four starters (Phillips, Okereke, Lee, Lewis). Any one miss kills it.
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +549 ($649). Adding Chiefs -535 lifts it to +670 ($770), about $121 more, for the risk a -535 favorite still loses (~16% implied).
Swaps (preferred first): Panthers to Falcons +145 (Germany game). Commanders to Chargers +200 (home vs Houston). Chiefs to 49ers -500 (hosts the Raiders).
Similar-price alt: None cleaner at current prices without reusing legs.
Ticket B: Eagles and Vikings plus the 49ers1/3 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/3 HIT - closed
SF HIT (38-17 vs LV); PHI MISSED (11-19 vs NYG); MIN MISSED (6-23 vs BUF Monday - Wentz started, Murray inactive; Bills LT Dawkins out). ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
SF HIT (38-17 vs LV); PHI MISSED (11-19 vs NYG); MIN MISSED (6-23 vs BUF Monday - Wentz started, Murray inactive; Bills LT Dawkins out). ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Two home dogs (one Monday night), 49ers anchor at home. Eagles 10am PT Sunday, 49ers 1:25pm PT Sunday, Vikings 5:15pm PT Monday.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $668 total ($568 profit), odds +568. Straight-multiply price.
Eagles ML +130 PHI +3 vs NYG (home dog), Sun 10am PT · implied 43% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Vikings ML +142 MIN +3 vs BUF (home dog), Mon 5:15pm PT · implied 41% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
49ers ML -500 SF -9.5 vs LV, Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 83% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games. 49ers ML is a heavy favorite, not a lock.
Case: Philadelphia is a home division dog in the week's lowest total (38.5) - rock fights keep dogs live, and the Eagles now hand the ball to Joe Milton III - first career start, signed off Dallas's practice squad Oct 16 - whose mobility and arm talent are what McKee couldn't give a stalled offense; the Giants are still asked to lay 3 on the road. Minnesota is 6-1 catching 3 at home on Monday night after a one-score loss at Detroit - now with Carson Wentz under center (Murray out, week-to-week) - and the Vikings' pass defense ranks #1 by FIC, the exact profile to drag a banged-up Buffalo (Dawkins, Coleman, Palmer, Moore all questionable) into a one-score game.
Killer: Milton is a true unknown - five career appearances, zero starts, behind an offense that has struggled to block, and he just lost WR1 DeVonta Smith (hamstring) - so the floor sits below McKee's 27-10 loss to Washington. The Monday leg now rides on Wentz with Murray officially out.
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +457 ($557). Adding 49ers -500 lifts it to +568 ($668), about $111 more, for the risk a -500 favorite still loses (~17% implied).
Swaps (preferred first): Eagles to Chargers +200 (home vs Houston; Panthers already sit on two tickets). Vikings to Falcons +145 or Commanders +195 (pricier). 49ers to Chiefs -535 (non-division opponent).
Similar-price alt: None cleaner at current prices without reusing legs.
Killer: Milton is a true unknown - five career appearances, zero starts, behind an offense that has struggled to block, and he just lost WR1 DeVonta Smith (hamstring) - so the floor sits below McKee's 27-10 loss to Washington. The Monday leg now rides on Wentz with Murray officially out.
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +457 ($557). Adding 49ers -500 lifts it to +568 ($668), about $111 more, for the risk a -500 favorite still loses (~17% implied).
Swaps (preferred first): Eagles to Chargers +200 (home vs Houston; Panthers already sit on two tickets). Vikings to Falcons +145 or Commanders +195 (pricier). 49ers to Chiefs -535 (non-division opponent).
Similar-price alt: None cleaner at current prices without reusing legs.
Ticket C: Colts and Packers plus the Seahawks2/3 HIT - closed
GRADE: 2/3 HIT - closed
GB HIT (45-27 at NE); SEA HIT (17-3 vs ARI); IND MISSED (23-27 vs DAL).
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
GB HIT (45-27 at NE); SEA HIT (17-3 vs ARI); IND MISSED (23-27 vs DAL).
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Colts 10am PT Sunday, Packers and Seahawks 1:25pm PT Sunday.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $867 total ($767 profit), odds +767. Straight-multiply price.
Colts ML +190 IND +4.5 vs DAL (home dog), Sun 10am PT · implied 34% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Packers ML +145 GB +3.5 at NE (road dog, rest case), Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 41% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Seahawks ML -455 SEA -8.5 vs ARI (home), Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 82% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games. Seahawks ML is a heavy home favorite, not a lock.
Case: Indianapolis catches 4.5 at home against a Dallas team on a short week off an overtime loss to Arizona, with Pickens ruled OUT (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8) - and the Colts got Gardner and Warren back last week. Green Bay comes off 10 days' rest into a New England building that lost A.J. Brown (ankle/knee, OUT) with Hunter Henry (foot) ACTIVE - Brown and Henderson still out, but Henry is available, the one road dog with a real case. Seattle anchors at home in a backup-quarterback duel: Drew Lock (Darnold out, quad/ribs) against Gardner Minshew, behind an Arizona line missing two starters and a backfield down to Tyler Allgeier. Seattle's own line loses Cross and Nelson, but the anchor stays home and no road favorite lays wood on this ticket.
Killer: A -455 anchor with a backup quarterback and two missing offensive linemen is not a normal anchor - Lock has to manage, not win it. Division games compress and Seattle just gave up 34 at home to Chicago. Dallas's offense can also bury the Colts early the way Jacksonville just did, and Green Bay remains without Micah Parsons, who is still on Reserve/PUP while his return-to-practice window is open. This is a continuing absence, not a new loss this week.
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +610 ($710). Adding Seahawks -455 lifts it to +767 ($867), about $157 more, for the risk a -455 favorite still loses (~18% implied).
Swaps (preferred first): Colts to Chargers +200 (same band). Packers to Panthers +120 (home instead of rest case). Seahawks to Bears -270 (home anchor Sunday night, thinner against a Tampa team that just pitched a shutout).
Similar-price alt: None cleaner at current prices without reusing legs.
Killer: A -455 anchor with a backup quarterback and two missing offensive linemen is not a normal anchor - Lock has to manage, not win it. Division games compress and Seattle just gave up 34 at home to Chicago. Dallas's offense can also bury the Colts early the way Jacksonville just did, and Green Bay remains without Micah Parsons, who is still on Reserve/PUP while his return-to-practice window is open. This is a continuing absence, not a new loss this week.
Anchor tradeoff: The two dogs alone pay +610 ($710). Adding Seahawks -455 lifts it to +767 ($867), about $157 more, for the risk a -455 favorite still loses (~18% implied).
Swaps (preferred first): Colts to Chargers +200 (same band). Packers to Panthers +120 (home instead of rest case). Seahawks to Bears -270 (home anchor Sunday night, thinner against a Tampa team that just pitched a shutout).
Similar-price alt: None cleaner at current prices without reusing legs.
Two-leg option: Panthers + Chiefs1/2 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/2 HIT - closed
KC HIT; CAR MISSED.
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
KC HIT; CAR MISSED.
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
If you want fewer legs. The cheapest home dog plus the heaviest anchor.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $261 total ($161 profit), odds +161. Straight-multiply price.
Panthers ML +120 CAR +2.5 vs DEN · implied 45% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Chiefs ML -535 KC -9.5 vs NYJ · implied 84% · DK via ESPN, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games.
Passes
Passes (Hans Gruber says no)
Jaguars -520 at BAL (Thu)
Road favorite laying wood, even against an undrafted rookie quarterback. The setup tempts; the rule against road favorites laying wood doesn't bend.
Ravens +390 vs JAX (Thu)
Undrafted rookie debut with Huntley also out. The price is big because the team isn't. No case.
Dolphins +235 vs DET
Nothing to catch; Detroit is the better team in every phase.
Cardinals +350 at SEA
Nice win in Dallas, but Seattle at home is a tough ask and the division tax is already in the number.
Jets +400 at KC / Raiders +380 at SF
Nothing.
Falcons +145 vs CIN
Shut out 16-0 last week, now a 6:30am PT body-clock game in Germany. No case.
Browns +142 at NO
Quarterback mess on the road. No case.
Cowboys -230 at IND
Not a dog and not cheap enough to anchor after the overtime loss.
Giants -155 at PHI
Road favorite against a backup-QB division team - the other side of our Eagles case.
Buccaneers +220 at CHI
Chicago just put 34 on Seattle in Seattle. No dog case.
Bears -270 vs TB
Too thin to anchor with against a Tampa team that just pitched a shutout.
Texans -245 at LAC
Road favorite off a bye at a thin price - the other side of the Chargers case.
Sources: DraftKings lines via ESPN scoreboard/summary API (Nov 7, 6:28pm PT) · game times ESPN schedule API · NFL.com Week 9 injury report (Nov 4) · baltimoreravens.com Fagnano start (Nov 4) · NBC Sports player news (Murray, Pickens, McCaffrey, Tuten, Nov 4) · Pats Pulpit NE practice (Nov 4) · philadelphiaeagles.com Hurts joint statement (Oct 19) · SI Commanders DL (Nov 4). AP/ESPN/NFL.com Milton named starter (Nov 4) · vikings.com/AP Wentz named Monday starter, Murray out (Nov 5-6) · seahawks.com Darnold out (Nov 4) · nfl.com Week 9 injury report Friday designations (Nov 6) · team-site official 10am-window inactives (Nov 8). Weeks 6-8 grading from official box scores.
Next: Official inactives verified against team sites before each Sunday window (6:30am Germany, 10am, 1:25pm, 5:20pm PT) and Monday. Next full rebuild Wednesday Nov 11, ~6:00pm PT.