The QB Index at Nakatomi - Mayfield / Hurts / Shough / Williams

This Week's Order - Week 3

#1 Jalen Hurts PHI 2-0★ @ CHI - TONIGHT 5:15pm PT (MNF) - PHI -4.5 - O/U 41.5 - implied 23.0 pts - vs Keenum The only constant on this board: 2-0, a game-winner with nine seconds left, and a Monday nighter against a Chicago defense that's middle-of-the-pack on paper.⚠ LG Landon Dickerson on IR (knee) - standing downgrade⚠ Goedert OUT (knee) - Brown and Fred Johnson also out; Barkley plays through a stinger

Last week (W2): 26/37, 264 yds, 2 TD/2 INT, 3 sacks - 16 rush yds - QBR 79.6 - W 24-20 @ TEN
Season: 467 pass yds, 5 TD/2 INT, 62 rush yds - 40.9 fpts through 2 weeks

Earned the top spot by being the only one of the four without a disaster: two wins, 5 touchdown passes, and the 9-seconds-left strike to Darius Cooper in Nashville.
The 2 picks in Week 2 were his first real wobble - but he answered with the game-winner, and the rushing floor (62 yds through 2 games) keeps the weekly floor QB1-high.
The matchup broke wide open: the Bears ruled Caleb out Saturday and named CASE KEENUM the starter (Glazer) - his first start since 2023 - over a cleared Bagent who missed the practice week. The market steamed Philly to -4.5 and crushed the total to 41.5 - a low-scoring grind caps the ceiling, but the floor is the safest on the board. National stage: Hurts lives for these.
Standing concern: the line without Dickerson gave up 3 more sacks in Tennessee.
Philly's own Saturday news: Goedert (knee), Hollywood Brown (ankle) and T Fred Johnson (knee) are OUT - the pass-catching room thins. Barkley (stinger) is full-go with a cowboy collar, DeVonta Smith (hamstring) full. Greenard (pec) questionable but finally practiced full.

Next three: W4 vs LAR (+1.1) - W5 @ JAX (+1.4) - W6 vs CAR (-1.7)

#2 Tyler Shough NO 1-2 vs LV - FINAL: L 27-35 (blew an 11-pt 2nd-half lead) - was NO -3 The riser hits his first wall: a career-best 4 TD passes, then a fumble and a pick on back-to-back 4th-quarter possessions that handed the Raiders the game. Holds #2 - the three-week pattern still beats everyone below him.

Last week (W3): 29/42, 250 yds, 4 TD/1 INT + lost fumble - L 27-35 vs LV
Season: 912 pass yds, 8 TD/3 INT, 31+ rush yds, 1 rush TD - ~71 fpts (most on this board)

The good is getting better: first career 4-TD game (all four to tight ends - Johnson twice, Fant twice), 9-107 for Olave, and an 11-point second-half lead at home.
The bad is now on tape too: a lost fumble and an interception on consecutive 4th-quarter possessions, both turned straight into Raiders touchdowns. The final five drives: punt, fumble, INT, fumble, fumble. That's the volatility warning from Thursday arriving on schedule.
New watch item: Etienne left Sunday with another hamstring tweak (13-57 before exiting). And losing outright as a home favorite to a 2-0-but-soft Raiders team is a real dent - he stays #2 because the ceiling games were higher than anything Mayfield or healthy-Caleb have shown, but the gap over the field shrank.
The caution flag still stands: three-game sample, and Sunday showed the floor. He's #2, not #1, for a reason - and Hurts can stretch the gap tonight.

Next three: W4 vs ATL (-0.7) - W5 vs MIN (+2.5) - W6 @ NYG (-1.4)

#3 Caleb Williams CHI 1-1 vs PHI - Mon 9/28, 5:15pm PT (MNF) - CHI +4.5 - O/U 41.5 - implied 18.5 pts Up to #3 without taking a snap: Baker's thumb is out a minimum of three weeks, and Caleb's season body of work wins the both-hurt tiebreak. His own hamstring is now the only thing between him and climbing further.⚠ OUT tonight vs PHI (hamstring) - week-to-week⚠ Case Keenum named MNF starter; Bagent cleared, backs up

Last week (W2): 15/26, 138 yds, 0 TD/1 INT, 3 sacks - 42 rush yds before exiting - QBR 63.6 - L 3-9 vs MIN
Season: 407 pass yds, 2 TD/1 INT, 107 rush yds, 2 rush TD - 45.0 fpts

The MRI verdict: no major damage, but he's week-to-week and the coach himself said "likely miss some time." Hamstrings and rushing quarterbacks are a bad mix - the 107 yards and 2 TDs on the ground were his edge, and this threatens exactly that.
Ruled out Saturday after not practicing all week - his first missed start in 36 regular-season games. The twist: Bagent cleared protocol Sunday morning, but Ben Johnson named CASE KEENUM the starter anyway - Bagent missed the practice week and Johnson 'really values that practice time.' Keenum's first start since 2023. Chicago's implied total is 18.5, lowest on the board.
The Week 2 bust still needs context: Minnesota's defense (+2.5 FPI) is the best unit any of these four has faced. The 59-point opener wasn't a mirage - but he can't prove it from the trainer's room.
The jump happened: Mayfield out a minimum of three weeks means the merit tiebreak - 45.0 vs ~42 fpts, the 59-point opener, no home loss to Cleveland - puts Caleb at #3 while he rehabs. Next milestone: practice participation, which could come as early as this week.

Next three: W4 vs NYJ (-0.9) - W5 @ GB (-0.6) - W6 @ ATL (-0.4)

#4 Baker Mayfield TB 0-3 vs MIN - FINAL: L 16-23 - was TB +1.5 - Baker exited 4Q (thumb) The MRI spoke: out a minimum of three weeks, best case 2-4. An 0-3 team now belongs to an undrafted rookie. He drops to #4 - when both he and Caleb are out, Caleb's season body of work wins.⚠ OUT min. 3 weeks - dislocated right thumb (no fracture, IR avoided)⚠ Jalon Daniels era begins vs GB Sunday

Last week (W3): 17/34, 217 yds, 1 TD/1 INT, 6 sacks - exited late 4Q (dislocated right thumb) - L 16-23 vs MIN
Season: 615 pass yds, 2 TD/2 INT - 0-3 - ~42 fpts

The pattern is now a full-blown slide: 0-3, three straight sub-par games, and six sacks taken against Minnesota's front. The 4th-quarter drive that could have tied it ended with his throwing hand hitting Blake Cashman - picked off, thumb dislocated.
The verdict: MRI showed no fracture and no ligament or tendon damage - the good news ends there. Bowles: out a MINIMUM of three weeks; Rapoport calls 2-4 weeks the best case. Jalon Daniels (UDFA out of Kansas) starts Sunday vs Green Bay, with Easton Stick elevated behind him. Then it's a Thursday nighter at Dallas in Week 5 - the timing could not be worse.
Minnesota's full-strength defense did what it does: 6 sacks, held the Bucs to 16 at home. The Bucs also had a Godwin TD wiped by a holding call - the margins keep shaving against them.
Why the drop: the tiebreak rule fired. Both he and Caleb are out - and Caleb's season (45.0 vs ~42 fpts, a 59-point opener, no home loss to Cleveland) beats Baker's 0-3 slide. He can climb back when he's throwing again, but that's late October at the earliest.

Next three: W4 vs GB (-0.6) - W5 @ DAL (-1.1) - W6 vs PIT (+0.9)

The Injury Wire

CHI - Keenum starts, Bagent cleared, Caleb out

Case Keenum named the MNF starter (Glazer, Sunday) - first start since 2023. Bagent fully cleared concussion protocol Sunday but missed the practice week, so he backs up. Caleb Williams (hamstring) is out, week-to-week. FOX Sports / NBC Sports Philadelphia, 9/27-28

TB - MAYFIELD OUT MIN. 3 WEEKS, DANIELS STARTS

MRI verdict Monday: dislocated right thumb, no fracture, no ligament/tendon damage - but Bowles says a MINIMUM of three weeks out (Rapoport: 2-4 weeks best case, IR avoided). Rookie UDFA Jalon Daniels (Kansas) starts Sunday vs Green Bay; Easton Stick elevated from the practice squad. Week 5 is a Thursday nighter at Dallas - brutal timing. USA Today / NBC Sports / Pewter Report, 9/28

NO - Etienne hurt again, defense nicked

Etienne left Sunday's game with another hamstring tweak (13-57 before exiting) - monitor this week. LB Pete Werner (stinger) and edge Anfernee Jennings (knee) also left; Granderson (ankle) returned. Juwan Johnson's late fumble sealed the loss. neworleanssaints.com, 9/27

PHI - tonight: Goedert out, Barkley plays

Unchanged from Saturday: Goedert (knee), Hollywood Brown (ankle) and Fred Johnson (knee) OUT tonight. Barkley (stinger) plays with a cowboy collar; DeVonta Smith full. Greenard (pec) questionable. NBC Sports Philadelphia / 6abc, 9/27

The Road Ahead - Opponent Defense by Week

soft

tough

QB	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12	W13	W14	W15	W16	W17	W18
Hurts PHI	@CHI+0.2	vsLAR+1.2	@JAX+0.9	vsCAR-0.5	vsDAL-1.2	@WSH-1.6	vsNYG-1.3	BYE	vsPIT+0.8	@DAL-1.2	@ARI-2.5	vsIND-1.5	vsSEA+3.0	vsHOU+1.9	@SF+0.7	@NYG-1.3
Shough NO	vsLV+0.2	vsATL-0.8	vsMIN+2.5	@NYG-1.3	vsPIT+0.8	BYE	vsCLE-0.6	vsCAR-0.5	@CHI+0.2	@CIN-0.1	vsGB-0.5	@CAR-0.5	@TB-0.8	vsARI-2.5	@ATL-0.8	vsTB-0.8
Williams CHI	vsPHI+0.9	vsNYJ-0.7	@GB-0.5	@ATL-0.8	vsNE+1.6	@SEA+3.0	vsTB-0.8	BYE	vsNO-0.1	@DET-1.2	vsJAX+0.9	@MIA-3.4	@BUF-0.8	vsGB-0.5	vsDET-1.2	@MIN+2.5
Mayfield TB	vsMIN+2.5	vsGB-0.5	@DAL-1.2	vsPIT+0.8	@CAR-0.5	vsATL-0.8	@CHI+0.2	BYE	@DET-1.2	vsCAR-0.5	vsLAC+0.8	@BAL+0.8	vsNO-0.1	@ATL-0.8	vsLAR+1.2	@NO-0.1

Number is the opponent's ESPN FPI defensive rating (positive = tougher). Values are post-Week 2 - ESPN's ratings feed was blocked at Monday's refresh; re-pull Thursday. Mayfield's Minnesota test (+2.5) is gone - the Bucs scored 16 at home.

How the Order Gets Built

Performance: most recent game first - efficiency (QBR, sacks, picks) over raw counting stats, with rushing floor counted.
Health: his own, then his weapons, then his line - a starting lineman on IR moves the rank more than a bruised RB.
Opponent: ESPN FPI defensive rating and pass-rush context for that week's matchup.
Market check: spread, total and implied team points from DraftKings lines. When the market and the model disagree, the page says so.
One game is one game, but two is a pattern. The order moves on patterns, not on a single box score - Shough earned #2 across two weeks, not one.

THE QB INDEX

This Week's Order - Week 3

The Injury Wire

The Road Ahead - Opponent Defense by Week

How the Order Gets Built