Pre-Trade Week Analysis

April 7-11, 2025

Prepared by: Stephen Ernest

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Executive Summary

The upcoming trading week is dominated by heightened volatility and uncertainty, with major market moves triggered by global trade concerns and tariff announcements. The VIX index has surged to 45.31, indicating significant risk aversion. The U.S. Dollar has shown strength with the DXY up 0.93%, while equity markets have experienced sharp corrections with the NASDAQ already in bear market territory and the S&P 500 at risk of following suit.

Commodity markets have been severely impacted, with WTI crude oil plunging to $62 per barrel, a level not seen since August 2021. Gold remains resilient despite some profit-taking, trading above the $3,000 mark as investors seek safe-haven assets amid the market turbulence.

In the currency space, the Australian Dollar has been one of the worst performers, with AUDUSD trading around 0.60 after substantial losses. The Japanese Yen has shown strength amid the risk-off sentiment, while the Canadian Dollar faces pressure due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on oil prices.

Market Snapshot

US Dollar Index (DXY)

+0.93%

103.02

Previous: 102.07

YTD: -5.04%

VIX Index

+50.93%

45.31

Previous: 30.02

Year Ago: 16.35

Gold (XAU/USD)

+15% YTD

$3,118.90

Support: $3,050

Resistance: $3,200

WTI Crude Oil

-7.4%

$62.00

4-Year Low

Down from $74 last week

Fundamental & Sentiment Analysis

Macroeconomic Factors

Currency Central Bank Policy Interest Rate Economic Outlook
USD Fed indicated more hawkish stance in recent communications 5.00% Mixed data with strong labor market but inflation concerns
JPY BoJ maintaining current policy despite recent rate hike 0.25% Weak economic growth, concerns about intervention
GBP BoE expected to begin rate cutting cycle in Q2 4.00% Economy showing signs of growth at 1.5% forecast
CAD BoC likely to continue rate cuts 3.75% Vulnerable to trade tensions and oil price collapse
CHF SNB remains hawkish on inflation 1.50% Safe haven flows supporting the currency
AUD RBA maintaining tight policy 4.10% Under pressure from Chinese economic concerns
NZD RBNZ holding rates steady 5.25% Weak economic indicators, vulnerable to risk-off sentiment
EUR ECB expected to cut rates in June 3.50% Mixed economic data, manufacturing weakness

Key Economic Events (April 7-11, 2025)

Date Event Country Impact
April 7 US ISM Services PMI United States Medium
April 8 RBA Interest Rate Decision Australia High
April 9 Consumer Confidence Index United States Medium
April 10 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) United States High
April 10 ECB Interest Rate Decision Eurozone High
April 11 US Producer Price Index (PPI) United States Medium
April 11 UK GDP Monthly Estimate United Kingdom Medium

Market Sentiment Indicators

Volatility & Risk Sentiment

  • VIX at 45.31 (Up 50.93%) - Strong Risk-Off
  • Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 - Bearish
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index: 24 (Fear) - Bearish
  • US 10Y Yield: 3.85% - Neutral

COT Report & Institutional Positioning

  • USD: Net long positions increasing - Bullish
  • Gold: Strong net long positions - Bullish
  • AUD: Net short positions growing - Bearish
  • Oil: Significant liquidation of long positions - Bearish

Key News Events Impacting Markets

Trump Tariff Announcement

The announcement of potential new tariffs by the Trump administration has significantly increased market volatility. The plan to impose reciprocal tariffs against trading partners has triggered fears of a global trade war, causing substantial selloffs across equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies.

Chinese Tariff Retaliation

China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs has further escalated trade tensions. This move has particularly impacted the Australian Dollar and commodities, with the AUD/USD pair plummeting to multi-year lows due to Australia's heavy trade reliance on China.

Central Bank Policy Expectations

Market expectations for central bank policies have shifted considerably. The Federal Reserve is now seen as potentially delaying rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns, while other central banks like the ECB and BoE may need to accelerate their easing cycles to counter economic headwinds from trade tensions.

NFP Report Impact

The latest US jobs report showed a surprisingly strong labor market, causing reassessment of Fed rate cut expectations. This has provided some support for the US Dollar against major peers despite broader market turbulence.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY

Bearish 75% Confidence

Current Price: 146.90

Technical Outlook:

Current fall from 158.86 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. Downside momentum is strong with bearish indicators on daily timeframe. The pair has broken below key moving averages and shows potential for further decline.

Support 1

143.57

Support 2

141.02

Resistance 1

146.76

Momentum Indicators:

RSI (14)

35

MACD

Bearish

Stochastic

Oversold

GBP/JPY

Bearish 85% Confidence

Current Price: 193.50

Technical Outlook:

GBP/JPY's steep decline last week indicates that rebound from 187.04 has completed with three waves up to 195.95. Initial bias remains on the downside with strong selling pressure and potential for further decline towards 187.00 area.

Support 1

187.04

Support 2

185.00

Resistance 1

195.95

Momentum Indicators:

RSI (14)

38

MACD

Bearish

Stochastic

Neutral

AUD/USD

Bearish 90% Confidence

Current Price: 0.6040

Technical Outlook:

AUD/USD has plummeted to multi-year lows amid severe risk-off sentiment and concerns about Chinese economy. The pair broke below key support at 0.6300 with significant momentum and continues to show bearish pressure.

Support 1

0.5985

Support 2

0.5900

Resistance 1

0.6300

Momentum Indicators:

RSI (14)

25

MACD

Very Bearish

Stochastic

Oversold

XAU/USD (Gold)

Bullish 80% Confidence

Current Price: $3,118.90

Technical Outlook:

Despite some profit-taking, gold remains in a strong uptrend with support at the psychological $3,000 level. Safe-haven demand and recession fears continue to support the precious metal, with potential for new all-time highs.

Support 1

$3,050

Support 2

$3,000

Resistance 1

$3,200

Momentum Indicators:

RSI (14)

65

MACD

Bullish

Stochastic

Neutral

BTC/USD (Bitcoin)

Neutral 60% Confidence

Current Price: $79,250

Technical Outlook:

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience despite broader market turbulence. While it experienced some volatility following the tariff announcements, it has held key support levels and remains in its longer-term uptrend, though momentum has slowed.

Support 1

$75,000

Support 2

$70,000

Resistance 1

$83,200

Momentum Indicators:

RSI (14)

55

MACD

Neutral

Stochastic

Neutral

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Bearish 85% Confidence

Current Price: 5,050

Technical Outlook:

S&P 500 has experienced a sharp correction, down over 17% from recent highs, approaching bear market territory. The index broke below key support levels with high volume, indicating strong selling pressure and potential for further decline.

Support 1

5,000

Support 2

4,800

Resistance 1

5,300

Momentum Indicators:

RSI (14)

30

MACD

Bearish

Stochastic

Oversold

USD/CAD

Bias: Bullish (70% Confidence)

Current Price: 1.4214

Key Levels: Support: 1.4100, 1.4000 | Resistance: 1.4300, 1.4415

USD/CHF

Bias: Bearish (65% Confidence)

Current Price: 0.8607

Key Levels: Support: 0.8550, 0.8500 | Resistance: 0.8650, 0.8700

AUD/CHF

Bias: Bearish (80% Confidence)

Current Price: 0.5198

Key Levels: Support: 0.5150, 0.5100 | Resistance: 0.5250, 0.5300

GBP/USD

Bias: Neutral (55% Confidence)

Current Price: 1.2650

Key Levels: Support: 1.2600, 1.2550 | Resistance: 1.2700, 1.2750

GBP/CHF

Bias: Bearish (60% Confidence)

Current Price: 1.1101

Key Levels: Support: 1.1050, 1.1000 | Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1200

NZD/USD

Bias: Bearish (75% Confidence)

Current Price: 0.5595

Key Levels: Support: 0.5550, 0.5500 | Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5700

EUR/GBP

Bias: Bullish (65% Confidence)

Current Price: 0.8450

Key Levels: Support: 0.8400, 0.8350 | Resistance: 0.8500, 0.8550

AUD/CAD

Bias: Bearish (85% Confidence)

Current Price: 0.8596

Key Levels: Support: 0.8550, 0.8500 | Resistance: 0.8650, 0.8700

NASDAQ (NDX100)

Bias: Bearish (90% Confidence)

Current Price: 17,353

Key Levels: Support: 17,000, 16,500 | Resistance: 17,500, 18,000

Top Trade Setups

Based on comprehensive analysis combining fundamental, sentiment, and technical factors, the following setups present the highest probability opportunities for the coming week:

Rank Asset Bias Entry Zone Stop Loss Take Profit Confidence Level Key Factors
1 GBP/JPY Bearish 193.50-194.00 196.00 187.00 85% Strong downtrend, risk-off sentiment, BoJ intervention concerns
2 AUD/USD Bearish 0.6050-0.6100 0.6150 0.5900 90% China tariff impact, technical breakdown, oversold but continued momentum
3 XAU/USD Bullish 3050-3080 2980 3250 80% Safe haven flows, institutional buying, support at key psychological level
4 USD/CAD Bullish 1.4150-1.4180 1.4080 1.4350 70% Oil price collapse, USD strength, approaching resistance
5 AUD/CAD Bearish 0.8600-0.8650 0.8700 0.8450 75% AUD weakness exceeding CAD weakness, technical breakdown

1. GBP/JPY Short (85% Confidence)

Trade Rationale:

  • Risk-off sentiment favoring JPY as safe haven
  • Technical breakdown from recent high of 195.95
  • Divergence between BoE (cutting) and BoJ (potentially hawkish)
  • Seasonal patterns favor JPY strength in Q2

Risk Management:

  • Entry: Sell at 193.50-194.00 zone
  • Stop Loss: 196.00 (above recent pivot high)
  • Take Profit 1: 190.00 (1.75:1 reward-to-risk)
  • Take Profit 2: 187.00 (3.5:1 reward-to-risk)
  • Position Size: 2% account risk

2. AUD/USD Short (90% Confidence)

Trade Rationale:

  • China tariff situation severely impacting Australian economy
  • AUD historically underperforms in risk-off environments
  • Technical breakdown below multi-year support at 0.6300
  • Negative interest rate differential with USD

Risk Management:

  • Entry: Sell at 0.6050-0.6100 on pullback
  • Stop Loss: 0.6150 (above recent consolidation)
  • Take Profit 1: 0.5950 (3:1 reward-to-risk)
  • Take Profit 2: 0.5900 (4:1 reward-to-risk)
  • Position Size: 2% account risk

3. XAU/USD Long (80% Confidence)

Trade Rationale:

  • Safe haven demand amid equity market turmoil
  • Strategic gold buying by central banks continuing
  • Technical support at psychological $3,000 level
  • Inflation concerns and recession fears supporting gold

Risk Management:

  • Entry: Buy at 3050-3080 on dips
  • Stop Loss: 2980 (below psychological support)
  • Take Profit 1: 3150 (2:1 reward-to-risk)
  • Take Profit 2: 3250 (4:1 reward-to-risk)
  • Position Size: 1.5% account risk

Market Summary Table

Asset Bias (Bullish/Bearish) Entry Zone Stop Loss Take Profit Confidence Level (%) Key Factors
USD/JPY Bearish 146.50-146.80 147.50 143.50 75% Technical breakdown, JPY safe haven status
GBP/JPY Bearish 193.50-194.00 196.00 187.00 85% Strong downtrend, risk-off sentiment
USD/CAD Bullish 1.4150-1.4180 1.4080 1.4350 70% Oil price collapse, USD strength
USD/CHF Bearish 0.8620-0.8650 0.8700 0.8550 65% Safe haven flows to CHF
AUD/USD Bearish 0.6050-0.6100 0.6150 0.5900 90% China tariff impact, technical breakdown
AUD/CHF Bearish 0.5200-0.5230 0.5280 0.5100 80% Risk-off sentiment, AUD weakness vs CHF strength
GBP/USD Neutral 1.2630-1.2670 1.2580 1.2750 55% Mixed signals, range-bound trading likely
GBP/CHF Bearish 1.1120-1.1150 1.1200 1.1000 60% Safe haven flows favoring CHF
XAU/USD Bullish 3050-3080 2980 3250 80% Safe haven status, institutional buying
BTC/USD Neutral 79000-80000 75000 83000 60% Resilience amid market turmoil, consolidation likely
NZD/USD Bearish 0.5600-0.5630 0.5670 0.5500 75% Risk-sensitive, tariff concerns
EUR/GBP Bullish 0.8430-0.8450 0.8380 0.8550 65% ECB vs BoE policy divergence
AUD/CAD Bearish 0.8600-0.8650 0.8700 0.8450 85% AUD weakness exceeding CAD weakness
NASDAQ Bearish 17300-17500 17800 16500 90% Bear market confirmation, tariff impact
S&P 500 Bearish 5050-5150 5300 4800 85% Near bear market territory, high volatility

Risk Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided reflects the current opinion of the author and is subject to change without notice. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this report. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned.