Week 6. FINAL, closed Mon Oct 19, 9:19pm PT. Built from the most likely scorers by price, not the biggest payouts. More legs = bigger payout. Prices are Caesars snapshots via FantasyInfoCentral, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET (Friday snapshot history kept in Sources). Not live book quotes. Re-shop every leg. Week 5 results are graded in the box below.
Week 5 result (recaps): Hit: Washington, Shipley, Cooper, Swift, LaPorta, McBride, Gibbs, CMC, Henry (receiving), Kyren, Puka, Allen, Cook, Adams. Missed: Taylor, Judkins, Tuten, Chase Brown, Bijan (0 TD per the official Falcons box score). Monday TD tickets Kyren + Puka (+213) and + Allen (+496) cashed. The 10am ticket missed.
Week 6 final scorecard (Mon Oct 19): No ticket cashed. A +78 LOST (Bijan 0 TD; Taylor hit). A2 +368 LOST (Collins 0). B +186 LOST (Bijan, Henry 0). C +329 LOST (Bijan; Walker hit twice). D +166 LOST (Bijan; Walker hit, CMC hit twice on Monday). E +445 LOST (Lloyd and Watson 0; Javonte hit). Delivered top 5 went 2 of 5: Taylor and Swift (x2) hit; Bijan, Henry, Stevenson missed. Week 7 lesson: Bijan sat on four of six tickets, too much shared exposure on one name.
Status flags (Sun Oct 18, 9:07pm): Official inactives (Oct 18): Penix is ACTIVE and starting, Bijan active (atlantafalcons.com). Caleb Williams is back for Chicago (Falcons official). Taylor is ACTIVE (colts.com). Judkins (CLE) is INACTIVE (clevelandbrowns.com). Henry (BAL) and Swift (CHI) are ACTIVE on the official inactives lists (NFL.com tracker, Oct 18 8:55am PT). 10am window graded (official scoring): Bijan 0 TD (9 carries, 61 yards), Taylor SCORED (4-yard rush), Swift SCORED twice (4-yard and 2-yard rushes), Henry 0 TD (Ravens lost 13-10), Stevenson 0 TD. So every ticket with the Bijan leg is dead. SNF officials: Lloyd, Javonte, Watson and Pickens are all ACTIVE (NFL.com tracker, Oct 18), Ticket E is fully live. Sunday FINALS: Walker SCORED twice (33-yard and 2-yard rushes, KC 22-6) and Javonte SCORED (1-yard rush, GB 23-13), but every ticket was already dead from the Bijan and Collins legs. Ticket E also died: Lloyd 0 TD (8 carries, 10 yards) and Watson 0 TD (3 catches, 64 yards). Week 6 ATD: no ticket cashed. Leg hits: Taylor, Swift x2, Walker x2, Javonte. MNF: McCaffrey is ACTIVE, not on the 49ers inactives (Rourke, Cruz Jr., Samuel Sr., Wallow, Sigle, Bosa, N. Jones) (49ers.com, Oct 19). It changes nothing, every Week 6 ticket is settled. Since Friday: Bijan steamed -280 to -310, Henry -182 to -164, Walker -176 to -200. London FINAL: HOU 34, JAX 31. Collins did NOT score (3 catches, 74 yards), so Ticket A2 is dead. Afternoon officials (Oct 18): Chargers inactives Derwin James, Tre' Harris, Shelley, D. Jackson, Dupree, Awosika, Alt (chargers.com, 11:55am PT). Rams inactives Daniels Jr., Atwell, Simpson, McDuffie, Murchison, Murray, so Kyren is ACTIVE (NFL.com tracker). Raiders inactives O'Connell, McCollum, Johnson, Slone, Cabeldue, Hemingway (raiders.com, 11:55am PT). Walker is ACTIVE, not on the Chiefs official inactives (Rice, Wiley, Nussmeier, Canady, Pyburn, Pounds, Simmons) (chiefs.com, Oct 18). Friday report: Taylor (IND) practiced fully Thu-Fri and has NO game designation, the Wednesday rest scratch is cleared (colts.com, Oct 16). Penix (ATL QB) has NO injury designation, full practice all week, Stefanski says no restrictions (Yahoo, Oct 16), so Bijan is down to normal risk. TNF settled: DEN 17-14 OT, JSN did not score. Walker (KC): Rashee Rice is OUT and the Chargers are missing Derwin James (chiefs.com, Oct 16). Lamar Jackson (BAL) is OUT, Huntley starts (NFL.com, Oct 16); Henry stays the Ravens goal-line back. Kyren Williams is now priced for Week 6 (-218 Caesars Oct 16, -210 DK Oct 14) and is back on the ranked list.
Ticket A is set: the two likeliest 10am scorers by price (Bijan 76%, Taylor 74% at Sunday prices); Henry (62%) is the first add on Ticket B. Taylor and Penix are confirmed active on the official inactives lists (Oct 18). Prices were refreshed Sun 8:55am PT; re-shop before you bet. London (Collins) is an optional add, it does not replace the 10am ticket.
Window order: the London game kicks off first, 6:30am PT Sunday (inactives about 5:00am PT). Then the 10am PT window (Henry, Taylor, Bijan), then 1:25pm (Walker), SNF 5:20pm (Green Bay), Monday (CMC). Tickets below start with the earliest windows.
Tickets, most likely first
Ticket A: Sunday 10am pair (LOST, Bijan no TD)+78
2 legs, both kick off 10am PT. The two likeliest 10am scorers by price.
$100 pays $178 total ($78 profit), odds +78. Straight-multiply price.
Bijan Robinson -310 ATL vs CHI (ATL home), Sun 10am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Jonathan Taylor -290 IND vs TEN (IND home, Colts -7), Sun 10am PT · implied 74% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Different games. No overlap. Bijan went 0 TD in Week 5, still the top ATL goal-line option.
Ticket A2: optional London add (LOST, Collins no TD)+368
3 legs. Optional: Collins in London added to the 10am pair. Not a replacement for ticket A. FINAL: HOU 34, JAX 31. Collins finished without a touchdown (3 catches, 74 yards), this leg LOST and the ticket is dead.
$100 pays $468 total ($368 profit), odds +368. Straight-multiply price.
Nico Collins +163 HOU vs JAX (London), Sun 6:30am PT · implied 38% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Bijan Robinson -310 ATL vs CHI (ATL home), Sun 10am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Jonathan Taylor -290 IND vs TEN (IND home, Colts -7), Sun 10am PT · implied 74% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Different games. Collins is a value price more than a likeliest-scorer price, so this is the "London first" option, not the top ticket.
Ticket B: Add Henry (LOST, Bijan and Henry no TD)+186
3 legs, all 10am PT games.
$100 pays $286 total ($186 profit), odds +186. Straight-multiply price.
Bijan Robinson -310 ATL vs CHI (ATL home), Sun 10am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Jonathan Taylor -290 IND vs TEN (IND home, Colts -7), Sun 10am PT · implied 74% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Derrick Henry -164 BAL at CLE (BAL away), Sun 10am PT · implied 62% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Different games. Lamar is OUT (Huntley starts), which keeps Baltimore run-heavy; Henry has the week's highest projected rushing TDs (4for4, 1.09).
Ticket C: Add Walker (LOST, Bijan leg dead)+329
4 legs across the Sunday 10am and 1:25pm windows.
$100 pays $429 total ($329 profit), odds +329. Straight-multiply price.
Bijan Robinson -310 ATL vs CHI (ATL home), Sun 10am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Jonathan Taylor -290 IND vs TEN (IND home, Colts -7), Sun 10am PT · implied 74% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Derrick Henry -164 BAL at CLE (BAL away), Sun 10am PT · implied 62% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Kenneth Walker III -200 KC vs LAC (KC home), Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 67% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Four separate games.
Ticket D: Walker + Bijan + CMC (LOST, Bijan leg dead)+166
3 legs over three windows, 10am Sunday to Monday night.
$100 pays $266 total ($166 profit), odds +166. Straight-multiply price.
Bijan Robinson -310 ATL vs CHI (ATL home), Sun 10am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Kenneth Walker III -200 KC vs LAC (KC home), Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 67% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Christian McCaffrey -295 SF vs WAS, Mon 5:15pm PT · implied 75% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Separate games. CMC -295 is a price a sharp would not touch, it is here because you asked for the likeliest scorers.
Ticket E: Green Bay shootout (LOST, Lloyd and Watson no TD)+445
3 legs, all DAL at GB. Bigger payout, linked legs.
$100 pays $545 total ($445 profit), odds +445. Straight-multiply price.
MarShawn Lloyd (GB RB) -143 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 59% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Javonte Williams -209 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 68% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Christian Watson +117 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 46% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Correlation: Heavily correlated. Total 52.5 and both teams scoring lifts all three. One cold game kills it.
Ranked list
Likeliest scorers by implied %
Bijan Robinson -310 CHI at ATL, Sun 10am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Christian McCaffrey -295 SF vs WAS, Mon 5:15pm PT · implied 75% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Jonathan Taylor -290 IND vs TEN, Sun 10am PT · implied 74% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Javonte Williams -209 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 68% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Kenneth Walker III -200 KC vs LAC, Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 67% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Kyren Williams -200 ARI at LAR, Sun 1:05pm PT · implied 67% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
D'Andre Swift -197 CHI at ATL, Sun 10am PT · implied 66% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Derrick Henry -164 BAL at CLE, Sun 10am PT · implied 62% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Puka Nacua -157 ARI at LAR, Sun 1:05pm PT · implied 61% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
MarShawn Lloyd (GB RB) -143 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 59% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
George Kittle +104 WAS at SF, Mon · implied 49% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
CeeDee Lamb +110 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 48% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
London (ATL WR) +115 CHI at ATL · implied 47% · FD via OddsShopper, Oct 14
Christian Watson +117 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 46% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Isaiah Likely +154 NO at NYG, Sun 10am PT · implied 39% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Nico Collins +163 HOU vs JAX London (live, no TD through 3q) · implied 38% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Tucker Kraft +170 DAL at GB, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 37% · Caesars via FIC, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET
Pickens +175 DAL at GB · implied 36% · DK, Oct 14 (FD +155)
Sources: fantasyinfocentral.com/betting/nfl/props/score-anytime-td (Caesars, Sun Oct 18 2:07am ET) · espn.com fantasy inactives page (Oct 18, Penix and Williams confirmed) · bleachernation.com Week 6 ATD odds (DK, Oct 14) · stokastic.com Week 6 ATD picks (Oct 13, TNF graded) · colts.com and chiefs.com injury reports (Oct 16) · nfl.com Lamar Jackson out (Oct 16) · pro-football-reference.com TNF box score (Oct 15).
Friday snapshot (history): Bijan -280, Taylor -290, Henry -182, Walker -176, CMC -295, Collins +155, Lloyd -143, Javonte -209, Watson +118; tickets were A +83, A2 +365, B +183, C +343, D +185, E +448.
Friday snapshot (history): Bijan -280, Taylor -290, Henry -182, Walker -176, CMC -295, Collins +155, Lloyd -143, Javonte -209, Watson +118; tickets were A +83, A2 +365, B +183, C +343, D +185, E +448.
Next: Sun 5:00am PT London inactives, 8:30am PT for the 10am window (Penix active check), 11:35am PT for the afternoon, 3:45pm PT for SNF, Mon 3:45pm PT for MNF.