Week 9. Wed Nov 4 edition, published Wed Nov 4, 6:17pm PT, repriced Sat Nov 7, 6:31pm PT, Germany inactives verified Sun Nov 8, 5:07am PT; 10am-window inactives verified 8:53am PT; late-window verified 12:04pm PT; SNF inactives verified 3:59pm PT; Sunday graded Nov 8, 9:23pm PT; Monday graded Nov 9, 9:55pm PT. Built from the most likely scorers by CURRENT price, earliest window first, not the biggest payouts. More legs = bigger payout. Prices are Caesars via FantasyInfoCentral, Nov 7 6:28pm PT. Not live quotes. Re-shop every leg.
Week 8 final scorecard (three of six tickets clean)graded
Legs hit/missed only, from official box scores; no verified sportsbook SGP price or wager exists, so no payout is claimed - any real same-game payout follows the book's quote. Ticket A (Thu): both legs HIT - Jacobs twice, Hubbard once, GB 27-19. Ticket E (SNF): both legs HIT - White (1-yard rush), Diggs (8-yard catch), WSH 27-10. Ticket F (Mon): both legs HIT - JSN (43-yard catch), Swift three times (1, 5, 5), CHI 34-17. B 2/3 (Henry, Allen hit; Javonte blanked), C 2/3 (Gibbs, Cook hit; Bijan blanked in a 16-0 shutout), D 1/3 (only Kyren; Walker and Rhamondre blanked). Legs: 11 of 15 hit. Rule held: no player on more than two tickets.
Week 7 final scorecard (two of six tickets clean)graded
Legs hit/missed only, from official box scores; no verified sportsbook SGP price or wager exists, so no payout is claimed - any real same-game payout follows the book's quote. Ticket A (Thu): both legs HIT - Swift (4-yard rush) and Stevenson (48-yard catch), CHI 30, NE 24. Ticket E (Mon): both legs HIT - Javonte (2-yard rush) and Lamb (9-yard and 16-yard catches), DAL 38, PHI 21. B 0/2 (Warren, Bijan blanked), C 1/3 (only McCaffrey), D 1/2 (Kyren hit, Gibbs blanked), SNF option 1/2 (JSN hit, Walker blanked). Legs: 7 of 13 hit.
Week 6 final scorecard (no ticket went clean)
A +78 MISSED (Bijan 0; Taylor hit). A2 +368 MISSED (Collins 0). B +186 MISSED (Bijan, Henry 0). C +329 MISSED (Bijan; Walker hit twice). D +166 MISSED (Bijan; Walker and McCaffrey hit). E +445 MISSED (Lloyd, Watson 0; Javonte hit). Lesson still applied below: no player sits on more than two tickets.
Window order: Thursday graded (Tuten hit, Henry missed). Sunday 6:30am PT Germany (Bijan, Chase), Sunday 10am PT (Gibbs, Walker, Javonte, Taylor, Kyren, Hubbard, St. Brown, Puka, Lamb, Diggs, White, Barkley), Sunday 1:05pm PT (Collins, Marks), Sunday 1:25pm PT (Jacobs, McCaffrey, JSN, Jeanty, Kittle, Rhamondre, Bowers), SNF 5:20pm PT (Swift, Irving), Monday 5:15pm PT (Allen, Cook, Jefferson). Tickets below start with the earliest windows.
Flags (Sat Nov 7): Bijan ACTIVE - not on official inactives (atlantafalcons.com/bengals.com, Nov 8, 8:01-8:02am ET); Falcons RB Brian Robinson Jr. to IR Saturday, even more Bijan work. McCaffrey ACTIVE per official 49ers inactives (Nov 8). Jacobs and JSN also ACTIVE; Ticket D stands, Kittle contingency not needed. TNF graded (JAX 33-10): Tuten HIT (12 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD), Henry MISSED (17 for 57, no TD) - Ticket A settles 1/2. Lamar and Huntley both on IR as of Thursday - UDFA Joe Fagnano starts Thursday, which is exactly why Henry sits at plus money (+120) against Jacksonville's #1 run defense (FIC). Hurts on IR - team/agent joint statement: deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli, blood thinners, no return timetable set (philadelphiaeagles.com, Oct 19); Joe Milton III starts vs the Giants (first career start, AP/ESPN, Nov 4); Barkley +116 stays off tickets on price. Pickens (hamstring/shoulder) OUT Sunday (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8). A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) OUT, Hunter Henry (foot) ACTIVE for NE; Brown and Henderson remain out. Mack Hollins also active. Darnold (quad/ribs) OUT - Drew Lock starts for Seattle (seahawks.com, Nov 4), JSN's QB change on Ticket D. Murray OUT Monday (week-to-week) - Wentz starts for Minnesota (vikings.com/AP). St. Brown ACTIVE (detroitlions.com inactives, Nov 8) - watch resolved, Lamb swap not needed. Pickens OUT (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8) - Cowboys also without Porter/Overshown. 49ers WRs Evans, Samuel, Kirk OUT - McCaffrey workload env. Barkley cleared (hamstring). Byes: PIT, TEN.
Week 9 final grading · 9:55pm PT: Week 9 final scorecard: Ticket B Bijan + Gibbs + Javonte: ALL THREE LEGS HIT. Optional Taylor fourth leg missed. A 1/2, C 1/3, D 1/3, E 1/2. Main ATD legs final: 8 hit, 7 missed (Monday: Cook HIT, Allen rush MISSED). F 1/2. Ticket B the only clean ticket.
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Pregame likelihood ranking (Saturday price snapshot)
Most likely scorers, all windows
| # | Player | Game | Price | Implied | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gibbs | DET at MIA | -380 | 79% | Sun 10am |
| 2 | McCaffrey | LV at SF | -335 | 77% | Sun 1:25 |
| 3 | Bijan | CIN vs ATL | -310 | 76% | Sun 6:30am |
| 4 | Walker | NYJ at KC | -235 | 70% | Sun 10am |
| 5 | Javonte | DAL at IND | -218 | 69% | Sun 10am |
| 6 | Swift | TB at CHI | -200 | 67% | Sun 5:20pm |
| 7 | Kyren | LAR at WSH | -157 | 61% | Sun 10am |
| 8 | Taylor | DAL at IND | -141 | 58% | Sun 10am |
| 9 | Puka | LAR at WSH | -135 | 57% | Sun 10am |
| 10 | JSN | ARI at SEA | -129 | 56% | Sun 1:25 |
| 11 | Rhamondre | GB at NE | -127 | 56% | Sun 1:25 |
| 12 | Allen (QB rush) | BUF at MIN | -124 | 55% | Mon 5:15pm |
| 13 | Lamb | DAL at IND | -118 | 54% | Sun 10am |
| 14 | Jacobs | GB at NE | -114 | 53% | Sun 1:25 |
| 15 | Cook | BUF at MIN | -114 | 53% | Mon 5:15pm |
| 16 | St. Brown | DET at MIA | -113 | 53% | Sun 10am |
Plus-money shots: Irving +101, Marks +103, Bowers +115, Barkley +116, White +130, Collins +149, Jefferson +152, Jeanty +163, Diggs +200. Prices: Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT.
Tickets and grades (original pregame order)
* ticket contains same-game legs: the combined price is illustrative independent-leg math from standalone snapshot prices, not sportsbook-offered odds. Actual same-game parlay payout requires a book quote.
Ticket A: Thursday pair - graded 1/2 (Tuten hit, Henry missed)1/2 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/2 HIT - closed
Tuten HIT (1 rushing TD); Henry MISSED (0 TD). ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Tuten HIT (1 rushing TD); Henry MISSED (0 TD). ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
2 legs, both Thursday 5:15pm PT.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $420 total ($320 profit), odds +320. Illustrative independent-leg math, not sportsbook-offered odds. Same-game pair: actual SGP payout requires a book quote.
Henry +120 JAX at BAL, Thu 5:15pm PT · implied 45% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 4 6:13pm PT
Tuten -110 JAX at BAL, Thu 5:15pm PT · implied 52% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 4 6:13pm PT
Correlation: Same game, opposite offenses.
Case: Henry IS Baltimore's offense with UDFA Joe Fagnano starting (Lamar and Huntley on IR) - 20+ touches even against the #1 run defense (down DT DaVon Hamilton, IR), and +120 is his first plus price of the season. Tuten scored twice last week and is Jacksonville's short-yardage hammer.
Killer: Jacksonville's #1 run defense (FIC) plus stacked boxes against a rookie quarterback, and Tuten was a game-time call all week (foot/ankle) and is officially active. Both have to hit.
Contingency (named): If Tuten is ruled out Thursday: Parker Washington +135 (JAX slot), repricing the ticket to +417 ($517).
Status: GRADED Fri (JAX 33-10, official box score): Tuten HIT (12 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD), Henry MISSED (17 carries, 57 yards, 0 TD). Ticket settles 1/2 - dead. Legs hit/missed only; no verified book quote or wager, so no payout is claimed. Footnote: the named contingency, Parker Washington, scored.
Case: Henry IS Baltimore's offense with UDFA Joe Fagnano starting (Lamar and Huntley on IR) - 20+ touches even against the #1 run defense (down DT DaVon Hamilton, IR), and +120 is his first plus price of the season. Tuten scored twice last week and is Jacksonville's short-yardage hammer.
Killer: Jacksonville's #1 run defense (FIC) plus stacked boxes against a rookie quarterback, and Tuten was a game-time call all week (foot/ankle) and is officially active. Both have to hit.
Contingency (named): If Tuten is ruled out Thursday: Parker Washington +135 (JAX slot), repricing the ticket to +417 ($517).
Status: GRADED Fri (JAX 33-10, official box score): Tuten HIT (12 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD), Henry MISSED (17 carries, 57 yards, 0 TD). Ticket settles 1/2 - dead. Legs hit/missed only; no verified book quote or wager, so no payout is claimed. Footnote: the named contingency, Parker Washington, scored.
Ticket B: Germany-plus-10am trio3/3 HIT - all legs hit
GRADE: 3/3 HIT - all legs hit
Bijan HIT (19 carries/100 yards/1 rush TD; 6 catches/47 yards); Gibbs HIT (20/74/1 rush TD); Javonte HIT (20/101/1 rush TD; 4 catches/23 yards). Optional fourth leg Taylor MISSED (0 TD), so the four-leg extension did not go clean. ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Bijan HIT (19 carries/100 yards/1 rush TD; 6 catches/47 yards); Gibbs HIT (20/74/1 rush TD); Javonte HIT (20/101/1 rush TD; 4 catches/23 yards). Optional fourth leg Taylor MISSED (0 TD), so the four-leg extension did not go clean. ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
3 legs, separate games. Bijan Sunday 6:30am PT (Germany), Gibbs and Javonte 10am PT.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $244 total ($144 profit), odds +144. Straight-multiply price.
Bijan -310 CIN vs ATL (Germany), Sun 6:30am PT · implied 76% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Gibbs -380 DET at MIA, Sun 10am PT · implied 79% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Javonte -218 DAL at IND, Sun 10am PT · implied 69% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games.
Case: The three shortest prices on the slate. Gibbs is the week's top projection (FIC 1.4) with Miami middling against both phases (16th/16th, FIC). Bijan draws Cincinnati's bottom-third defense (27th vs pass, 20th vs run) in the week's joint-highest total (52.5). Javonte gets Indianapolis's 27th-ranked run defense (FIC) with Pickens ruled OUT (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8), funneling red-zone work to the run.
Killer: One blank kills it, and Bijan just went scoreless in Tampa with the whole Falcons offense.
Optional 4th leg: Taylor -141 (Dallas 32nd vs run, FIC) lifts the ticket to +317 ($417).
Swaps: Bijan to Chase -114 (same game, cheaper). Gibbs to Walker -235. Javonte to Taylor -141.
Status: Bijan ACTIVE per official inactives (atlantafalcons.com/bengals.com, Nov 8, 8:01-8:02am ET). Falcons put RB Brian Robinson Jr. on IR Saturday (atlantafalcons.com) - named swap Chase -114 not needed. Bengals out: S Dugger, C Lew, OT Hinton, DT Robinson.
Case: The three shortest prices on the slate. Gibbs is the week's top projection (FIC 1.4) with Miami middling against both phases (16th/16th, FIC). Bijan draws Cincinnati's bottom-third defense (27th vs pass, 20th vs run) in the week's joint-highest total (52.5). Javonte gets Indianapolis's 27th-ranked run defense (FIC) with Pickens ruled OUT (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8), funneling red-zone work to the run.
Killer: One blank kills it, and Bijan just went scoreless in Tampa with the whole Falcons offense.
Optional 4th leg: Taylor -141 (Dallas 32nd vs run, FIC) lifts the ticket to +317 ($417).
Swaps: Bijan to Chase -114 (same game, cheaper). Gibbs to Walker -235. Javonte to Taylor -141.
Status: Bijan ACTIVE per official inactives (atlantafalcons.com/bengals.com, Nov 8, 8:01-8:02am ET). Falcons put RB Brian Robinson Jr. on IR Saturday (atlantafalcons.com) - named swap Chase -114 not needed. Bengals out: S Dugger, C Lew, OT Hinton, DT Robinson.
Ticket C: Sunday 10am trio (St. Brown active)1/3 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/3 HIT - closed
Walker HIT (1 rush TD + 2 receiving TDs); Kyren MISSED (15/45 rushing, 3/16 receiving, 0 TD); St. Brown MISSED (8/86, 0 TD). Unused Lamb swap scored, but Kyren still missed. ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Walker HIT (1 rush TD + 2 receiving TDs); Kyren MISSED (15/45 rushing, 3/16 receiving, 0 TD); St. Brown MISSED (8/86, 0 TD). Unused Lamb swap scored, but Kyren still missed. ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
3 legs, all Sunday 10am PT, separate games.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $440 total ($340 profit), odds +340. Straight-multiply price.
Walker -235 NYJ at KC, Sun 10am PT · implied 70% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Kyren -157 LAR at WSH, Sun 10am PT · implied 61% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
St. Brown -113 DET at MIA, Sun 10am PT · implied 53% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games.
Case: Walker at home against the Jets' 21st-ranked run defense (FIC) in a game Kansas City should control throughout. Kyren draws a Washington front missing both starting defensive tackles (Payne, Kinlaw). St. Brown is Detroit's red-zone answer with Miami 16th against the pass.
Killer: Walker is the softest of the three by projection (FIC 1.1) and the Chiefs spread it around when they're ahead. St. Brown (rib) was limited all week but is active (detroitlions.com, Nov 8).
Swaps: Walker to Gibbs -380 (pricier). Kyren to Puka -135 (same game). St. Brown to Lamb -118.
Status: St. Brown ACTIVE (detroitlions.com inactives, Nov 8, 11:30am ET) - ticket stands as built, named Lamb swap not needed. Dallas rules Pickens OUT (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8) - Cowboys also without Porter and Overshown, so the Javonte and Lamb cases improve.
Case: Walker at home against the Jets' 21st-ranked run defense (FIC) in a game Kansas City should control throughout. Kyren draws a Washington front missing both starting defensive tackles (Payne, Kinlaw). St. Brown is Detroit's red-zone answer with Miami 16th against the pass.
Killer: Walker is the softest of the three by projection (FIC 1.1) and the Chiefs spread it around when they're ahead. St. Brown (rib) was limited all week but is active (detroitlions.com, Nov 8).
Swaps: Walker to Gibbs -380 (pricier). Kyren to Puka -135 (same game). St. Brown to Lamb -118.
Status: St. Brown ACTIVE (detroitlions.com inactives, Nov 8, 11:30am ET) - ticket stands as built, named Lamb swap not needed. Dallas rules Pickens OUT (dallascowboys.com, Nov 8) - Cowboys also without Porter and Overshown, so the Javonte and Lamb cases improve.
Ticket D: Sunday 1:25 trio (all three active)1/3 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/3 HIT - closed
McCaffrey HIT (1 rush + 1 receiving TD); Jacobs MISSED (4 carries/5 yards, 0 TD); JSN MISSED (7 catches/51 yards, 0 TD). ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
McCaffrey HIT (1 rush + 1 receiving TD); Jacobs MISSED (4 carries/5 yards, 0 TD); JSN MISSED (7 catches/51 yards, 0 TD). ESPN final box · ESPN final box · ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
3 legs, all Sunday 1:25pm PT, separate games.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $433 total ($333 profit), odds +333. Straight-multiply price.
McCaffrey -335 LV at SF, Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 77% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Jacobs -114 GB at NE, Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 53% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
JSN -129 ARI at SEA, Sun 1:25pm PT · implied 56% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Separate games.
Case: McCaffrey at -335 against Las Vegas's 31st-ranked run defense (FIC) is the slate's best matchup, and San Francisco's WR room (Evans, Samuel, Kirk all OUT) funnels even more to him. Jacobs on 10 days' rest into a New England game missing A.J. Brown that should stay close and keep him fed. JSN is Seattle's clear WR1 against Arizona's 15th-ranked pass defense - now catching from Drew Lock with Darnold out.
Killer: Active does not guarantee a full workload after a hamstring issue. Seattle's line is missing Cross and Nelson in front of Lock.
Contingency (named): Previously named fallback: Kittle -127 (same game), +496 ($596) at Saturday prices. Not activated: McCaffrey is active.
Status: McCaffrey, Jacobs and JSN ACTIVE per official team inactives, Nov 8 (12:04pm PT check). Drew Lock ACTIVE and starting for Seattle. Kittle contingency not needed. Henry and Hollins active for New England; Brown and Henderson out. SF activated Demarcus Robinson, but Evans/Samuel remain out and Kirk is on IR. Official late-window inactives, Nov 8: 49ers · Seahawks/Cardinals · Packers · Patriots.
Case: McCaffrey at -335 against Las Vegas's 31st-ranked run defense (FIC) is the slate's best matchup, and San Francisco's WR room (Evans, Samuel, Kirk all OUT) funnels even more to him. Jacobs on 10 days' rest into a New England game missing A.J. Brown that should stay close and keep him fed. JSN is Seattle's clear WR1 against Arizona's 15th-ranked pass defense - now catching from Drew Lock with Darnold out.
Killer: Active does not guarantee a full workload after a hamstring issue. Seattle's line is missing Cross and Nelson in front of Lock.
Contingency (named): Previously named fallback: Kittle -127 (same game), +496 ($596) at Saturday prices. Not activated: McCaffrey is active.
Status: McCaffrey, Jacobs and JSN ACTIVE per official team inactives, Nov 8 (12:04pm PT check). Drew Lock ACTIVE and starting for Seattle. Kittle contingency not needed. Henry and Hollins active for New England; Brown and Henderson out. SF activated Demarcus Robinson, but Evans/Samuel remain out and Kirk is on IR. Official late-window inactives, Nov 8: 49ers · Seahawks/Cardinals · Packers · Patriots.
Ticket E: SNF pair (both active)1/2 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/2 HIT - closed
Irving HIT (20/97/2 rushing TDs; 4 catches/28 yards); Swift MISSED (12/31 rushing, 0 catches, 0 TD). ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Irving HIT (20/97/2 rushing TDs; 4 catches/28 yards); Swift MISSED (12/31 rushing, 0 catches, 0 TD). ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
2 legs, both Sunday 5:20pm PT.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $301 total ($201 profit), odds +201. Illustrative independent-leg math, not sportsbook-offered odds. Same-game pair: actual SGP payout requires a book quote.
Swift -200 TB at CHI, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 67% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Irving +101 TB at CHI, Sun 5:20pm PT · implied 50% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Same game, opposite offenses.
Case: Swift is the hottest scorer alive - three rushing TDs Monday night - and his case is form and volume, not matchup (Tampa is toughest against the run in the Saturday FIC snapshot). Irving scored Tampa's only touchdown last week and +101 is the plus-money kicker; Chicago's front is 3rd-toughest, so that leg is price, not matchup. Monangai (thumb/toe) is officially inactive, keeping one backfield competitor out; that does not guarantee every carry or goal-line touch.
Killer: Both fronts rank top-3 against the run (FIC) - both legs swim upstream.
Swaps: Swift to Barkley +116 (worse price, better matchup; cleared Friday). Irving to White +130.
Status: Swift and Irving ACTIVE, official inactive lists checked Sun Nov 8, 3:59pm PT. Monangai inactive; Egbuka active for Tampa, Diaby inactive. No swap needed. Prices remain Saturday snapshots. Buccaneers official list; NFL official lists (Bears).
Case: Swift is the hottest scorer alive - three rushing TDs Monday night - and his case is form and volume, not matchup (Tampa is toughest against the run in the Saturday FIC snapshot). Irving scored Tampa's only touchdown last week and +101 is the plus-money kicker; Chicago's front is 3rd-toughest, so that leg is price, not matchup. Monangai (thumb/toe) is officially inactive, keeping one backfield competitor out; that does not guarantee every carry or goal-line touch.
Killer: Both fronts rank top-3 against the run (FIC) - both legs swim upstream.
Swaps: Swift to Barkley +116 (worse price, better matchup; cleared Friday). Irving to White +130.
Status: Swift and Irving ACTIVE, official inactive lists checked Sun Nov 8, 3:59pm PT. Monangai inactive; Egbuka active for Tampa, Diaby inactive. No swap needed. Prices remain Saturday snapshots. Buccaneers official list; NFL official lists (Bears).
Ticket F: Monday pair (Wentz starts)1/2 HIT - closed
GRADE: 1/2 HIT - closed
Cook HIT (31 carries/107 yards/1 rushing TD - 5-yard score); Allen rushing leg MISSED (6 carries/15 yards, 0 rushing TD - his TD came passing). BUF won 23-6 at MIN; Wentz started, Murray inactive. ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
Cook HIT (31 carries/107 yards/1 rushing TD - 5-yard score); Allen rushing leg MISSED (6 carries/15 yards, 0 rushing TD - his TD came passing). BUF won 23-6 at MIN; Wentz started, Murray inactive. ESPN final box
Legs hit/missed only. No verified sportsbook quote or actual wager exists, so no realized payout is claimed. The original price/payout examples below are archived pregame math, not returns.
2 legs, both Monday 5:15pm PT.
Archived pregame example: $100 pays $339 total ($239 profit), odds +239. Illustrative independent-leg math, not sportsbook-offered odds. Same-game pair: actual SGP payout requires a book quote.
Allen (QB rush) -124 BUF at MIN, Mon 5:15pm PT · implied 55% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Cook -114 BUF at MIN, Mon 5:15pm PT · implied 53% · Caesars via FIC, Nov 7 6:28pm PT
Correlation: Same game, same backfield - the strongest correlation on the board, priced accordingly.
Case: Minnesota's #1 pass defense (FIC) funnels Buffalo to the ground, where Allen's rushing is opponent-proof and Cook is the goal-line back. Monday night, dome... Minnesota's run defense ranks 17th - middling.
Killer: Wentz starts with Murray officially out (week-to-week) - if Minnesota sags, Buffalo may not need touchdowns late.
Contingency (named): If Cook is out: Jefferson +152, repricing to +355 ($455).
Status: Murray officially OUT Monday (vikings.com/AP, Nov 5-6); Wentz starts. Monday inactives still verified for Allen/Cook.
Case: Minnesota's #1 pass defense (FIC) funnels Buffalo to the ground, where Allen's rushing is opponent-proof and Cook is the goal-line back. Monday night, dome... Minnesota's run defense ranks 17th - middling.
Killer: Wentz starts with Murray officially out (week-to-week) - if Minnesota sags, Buffalo may not need touchdowns late.
Contingency (named): If Cook is out: Jefferson +152, repricing to +355 ($455).
Status: Murray officially OUT Monday (vikings.com/AP, Nov 5-6); Wentz starts. Monday inactives still verified for Allen/Cook.
Sources: Caesars ATD prices via fantasyinfocentral.com/betting/nfl/props/score-anytime-td (snapshot Nov 7, 6:28pm PT) · game times ESPN schedule API · NFL.com Week 9 injury report (Nov 4) · baltimoreravens.com Fagnano start (Nov 4) · NBC Sports player news (McCaffrey, Murray, Pickens, Nov 4) · jaguars.com/AP official TNF inactives (Nov 5) · ESPN official TNF box score (Nov 5) · nfl.com Week 9 injury report Friday designations (Nov 6) · bengals.com/atlantafalcons.com official inactives (Nov 8) · detroitlions.com/dallascowboys.com official inactives (Nov 8) · vikings.com/AP Wentz named starter (Nov 5-6) · seahawks.com Darnold out (Nov 4) · Pats Pulpit NE practice (Nov 4) · philadelphiaeagles.com Hurts joint statement (Oct 19) · AP/ESPN Milton named starter (Nov 4). Weeks 6-8 grading from official box scores.
Next: Official inactives verified against team sites before each window (Germany 6:30am, 10am, 1:25pm, SNF 5:20pm PT, Monday) update this page in place. Next full rebuild Wednesday Nov 11, ~6:00pm PT.